Water Crises To Re-Shape African Governments And Societies By 2050 – Africa.com
- The number of people internally displaced by climate disasters could increase by more than 30% by 2050
- Our current approaches to water management are inadequate and could exacerbate the impacts of climate mobility
- Water resilience and social resilience should be integrated into strategic priorities across sectors to mitigate the impacts of climate mobility
- Communities will “follow the flow” which will lead to water shortages and impact resource planning
Governments that fail to develop strong strategic responses to climate change and water infrastructure crises will increasingly find themselves at odds with their populations over the next two decades.
This disruption to the social contract between governments and citizens will extend far beyond the service delivery and supply disruptions currently making headlines. Rather, it will fundamentally change where people choose to live, where they start businesses and their willingness to invest in key sectors of the economy.
This is the view of Dean Muruven, associate director at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), who recently spoke to the media at the Climate Change Roundtable.
“While we have learned some lessons from South Africa’s load shedding and energy crisis, particularly in terms of funding and public-private partnerships, the water issue is much more complex,” Muruven explained, adding: “Access to water is a Fundamental human rights under the South African constitution, this is not a problem that can be solved simply by increasing private sector participation.”
According to BCG in To understand climate mobility, follow the flow The report states that internal displacement due to climate disasters may increase by more than 30% by 2050, while current water management approaches are insufficient and may exacerbate the impacts of climate mobility.
This is a particularly important challenge for Africa. The World Resources Institute has released a research report on “Country Water Stress Ranking”, which shows that 12 of the 50 countries on the African continent have the most severe water stress.
In water-scarce countries such as South Africa, this means people will “follow the water”, which in turn creates additional constraints on water infrastructure, while affecting town planning and resource management.
The image below documents this:
“While the continent is widely described as ‘water scarce’, Africa actually faces increased climate mobility by 2050 due to flood risk rather than drought risk,” explains Muruven. Water in Food & Energy, Healthcare The relationship between them has received little attention.
For example, in Somalia, a prolonged drought has affected food security and exacerbated long-term population displacement, while in Malawi, flood-affected areas have seen an increase in the number of cholera cases. Analysis of migration data shows a correlation between extreme flooding in 2022 and the number of people entering South Africa from Malawi, with two migrants identified as the original source of cholera entering South Africa.
Floods in KwaZulu-Natal have not only displaced people but also caused severe damage to infrastructure. This includes R10 billion in critical infrastructure, R400 million in transmission damage, disruptions to oil and coal supply lines and job losses.
Gauteng is South Africa’s economic hub and more than 40% of its tap water is lost due to leaks and illegal connections, ultimately affecting municipalities’ revenue. Economists estimate that if Gauteng reaches “day zero”, the economic loss from lost business activity could be as high as R3 billion per day.
Muruven concluded: “As we frame this discussion around 2050, stakeholders from government to the private sector need to understand that this is an issue that is having a direct impact at this moment, and the longer we go, the greater the challenges. It’s only going to get bigger with the delay in having a strong strategic long-term plan.”
