New mathematical modelling study demonstrates gene drives could boost malaria control when added to intervention packages including new bed nets and vaccines
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Researchers at Target Malaria have published a new mathematical modeling study assessing the potential impact of gene drive technology on malaria incidence in West Africa.
The study predicts that gene drives could reduce mosquito malaria vector populations by 71% to 98%, thereby significantly reducing malaria cases – at least 60 million could be avoided by adding gene drives to intervention options including vaccines and improved bed nets. % of clinical cases.
The findings also suggest that gene drives would be most effective if they target multiple mosquito species, particularly the four main malaria vectors in West Africa: Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles gambiae. Cruz, An. Arabia, and An. Funestus.
Because it is self-sustaining and cost-effective, a one-time release of gene drive mosquitoes could have a significant impact on the number of cases averted, especially in rural and remote areas.
London, UK, November 22, 2024 -/African Media Agency (AMA)/- UK targets malaria The modeling team at Imperial College London published their latest research in Nature Communications, titled “The potential of gene drives for malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments”. This study explored the impact that mosquitoes engineered with gene drive technology might have on malaria incidence if deployed in West Africa. To conduct the study, the scientists used mathematical models to test various hypotheses regarding the epidemiological efficacy of gene drives. a hypothesis.
“We simulated gene drive release at different sites in West Africa to examine how gene drive technology could reduce malaria prevalence in a variety of environments,” said the lead author. Dr. Ace Northresearcher at Oxford University, chief modeler at Target Malaria in the UK.
The model integrates data from 16 sites in 13 malaria-endemic countries (Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Togo, Benin and Côte d’Ivoire), taking into account landscape characteristics, climate, mosquitoes species, malaria prevalence, and interventions such as insecticides, drug treatments, and vaccines.
“This new approach to modeling gene drive interventions for malaria control includes entomological and epidemiological processes. Our approach incorporates inputs that help assess the combined effect of control measures against insects and humans, as well as local conditions influence the success of interventions,” the co-authors added Dr. Penny Hancockbiostatisticians and epidemiologists Imperial College London/MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, part of Target Malaria UK.
Mathematical modeling developed by Target Malaria shows that gene drive mosquitoes could significantly boost malaria control when used in conjunction with new bed net products and vaccines. Studies have shown that mosquito populations decreased by 71.6%–98.4%, leading to a significant reduction in malaria cases. If gene drives were added to other new tools, including RTS, S vaccination, and pyrethroid-PBO bed nets, at least 60% of clinical cases could be avoided. These findings highlight the benefits and potential of gene drives and the need for a comprehensive approach to malaria, using new innovative tools to bridge gaps in traditional interventions.
The model also predicts that dissemination of gene drives across mosquito species will be necessary to significantly reduce malaria burden (by 90% across all regions). In West Africa, this means targeting four important vector species: Anopheles gambiae, one. Cruze, arabic treeand one. Funestes. According to the model, gene drive mosquitoes would spread spatially from the initial release location, temporarily eliminating the target malaria mosquito species (approximately 72%-92% suppression). The target vector species will not be permanently eliminated from the area, but will be reduced by approximately 72%-92%.
Genetic technologies such as gene drives can provide complementary tools to address some of the challenges and limitations of current malaria control approaches. This promising control method could provide a long-term and cost-effective way to control malaria, well suited to the disease burden in widespread and predominantly rural areas.
Mathematical modeling can help provide a theoretical understanding of how gene drive releases may impact vector populations and reduce disease prevalence. Looking forward to the first game Gene drive live releasemodels are increasingly tailored to specific malaria-endemic regions.
The new study also highlights several new avenues of scientific research in the field of gene drives, including the need for further field studies of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes.
Distributor African Media Agency (AMA) On behalf of Target Malaria Organization.
Notes for editors:
- This link provides an animation simulating the spread of a gene drive in a mosquito population following release (Credit Ace North).
- Simulation code to run models of gene drive dynamics and malaria infection dynamics is available on GitHub: https://github.com/AceRNorth/WestAfricaModel (doi:10.5281/zenodo.13785414)74 https://github.com/pahanc/malariasimulation_import_mosq (doi:10.5281/zenodo.13789477)75. This code is a modified version of the R package malaria simulation v1.4.3, using R v4.3.0. Plots were generated in Mathematica v14.0 and R v4.3.0.
About Target Malaria
Target Malaria is a not-for-profit research alliance that aims to develop and share new, cost-effective, Target Malaria is a not-for-profit research alliance that aims to develop and share new, cost-effective and sustainable genetic technologies , to modify mosquitoes and reduce malaria transmission. Our vision is to contribute to a world without malaria. We aim to achieve excellence in all areas of our work and to pave the way for responsible research and development of genetic technologies such as gene drives. www.targetmalaria.org
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