CryptoQuant CEO Sounds The Alarm
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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoin’s bull cycle is “end” and warned investors to cheer up in “6-12 months of bearish or lateral price action.” This development comes after the on-chain analysis veteran previously urged caution, but until two weeks ago, the market’s outlook remained measured.
Did the Bitcoin Bull run away?
In today’s post shared via X statement: “The Bitcoin bull cycle is over and there is expected to be 6-12 months of bearish or lateral price action.”
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In addition to comments, the CEO highlights the cyclical signal of the Bitcoin PNL index – this index summarizes multiple on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR and NUPL to determine the top, bottom, bottom, and periodic turning points at the price of Bitcoin at the price of Bitcoin. According to Ki, the indicator has historically provided a reliable buying and selling signal.
Bitcoin PNL Index Periodic Signal | Source: x @ki_young_ju
He further explained how the automated alerts previously sent to subscribers combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once this year’s 1-year moving average trend, it usually marks an important market turning point. As proof, KI also shared a chart: “This alert applies PCA to on-chain metrics MVRVSOPR and NUPL to calculate the 365-day moving average. This signal determines the inflection point of the 1-year moving average trend. ”
PNL index signal 365 MA | Source: x @ki_young_ju
Ki pointed out the liquidity and fresh sales pressure of the “new whales”, he said they are unloading Bitcoin at a lower price. It is worth noting that he revealed that implicit users who subscribe to his alert received this signal before the public announcement today. “As new liquidity drys up, new whales sell bitcoin at a lower price. Encrypted users who subscribed to my alerts a few days ago received this signal. I think they have adjusted their positions, so I’m now posting this signal.”
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The latest statement is in contrast to remarks four days ago on March 14, when Ki put forward a more cautious tone and said: “Bitcoin demand seems to be stuck, but it’s too early to call it a bear market.”
At the time, he shared charts of Bitcoin’s obvious demand (30-day and) indicators that were slightly negative – early signals suggesting demand may be gradually decreasing. Although Ki pointed out that demand can still rebound (like the lateral phases of the past), he acknowledged the possibility that Bitcoin is shaking on the edge of a bear market.
Given Ki’s position two weeks ago, the hub in emotions is particularly noteworthy. In that earlier post, he thought that “the bull cycle is still intact”, thanks to strong fundamentals and Growing mining capacity: “There is no major on-chain activity, the key metrics are neutral, which suggests that the bull cycle is still intact. The fundamentals are still strong, and more mining rigs are online.”
However, he also warned that if sentiment does not improve, especially in the United States, the market may turn. With today’s announcement, the warning has clearly crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside situation, Ki said: “If the cycle ends here, it’s the result that no one wants, not the old whales, mining companies, Tradfi, Even Trump. (For reference only, the market does not care about retail.)
At press time, BTC traded at $83,059.
BTC prices hover below key resistance, 1 week chart | Source: btcusdt on tradingview.com
Featured Images created with dall.e, Charts for TradingView.com
