How Trump’s trade policy is putting pressure on U.S. farmers | Global News Avenue

Caleb Ragland, soybean farmer in Magnolia, Kentucky, votes for president Donald Trump In 2016, 2020 and 2024. But now, he must drive a tariff minefield while the industry is already facing a major headwind.

Ragland works with his wife and three sons and takes root in the community. His family has cultivated the land for more than two centuries. But over the past few years, his crop prices have fallen by double digits while production costs have risen. Soybean futures, along with corn futures, have fallen by more than 40% over the past three years.

The industry has been intensified by retaliatory tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration and other countries, and he fears for the life of his business.

“My son is probably the 10th generation,” Ragland, who is also president of the American Soybean Association, told CNBC. “And, when you have policies that are completely out of control – they manipulate us at 20%, 30%, and on the other hand, our costs are rising – we won’t be able to continue to operate.”

This is not the first time farmers have had to deal with new tariffs. Back to Trump’s first term, a trade war with China in 2018 – Lagran says agricultural economy “in a better place than it is” – paying for the American agricultural industry More than $27 billionsoybeans account for almost 71% of annualized losses.

This trade war has caused lasting losses. Until today, the United States has not fully recovered its losses in its market share of soybean exports to China. The first buyer of the productaccording to the ASA.

“Tariffs break trust,” Lagran said. “It’s much harder to find new customers than to retain customers you already have.”

The White House imposed last week 25% tariffs on goods in Canada and Mexico In addition to the additional tax on China’s imports.

Trump quickly turned the course Grant one month tariff delay for automakers Wednesday, then a day later Some Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2he said tariffs in an interview on Sunday, aired on Fox News As time goes by, “can rise”.

These exemptions do not include Chinese tariffs. China retaliates with its own taxation, Mainly targeted at American agricultural commodities. Specifically, our soybeans now have an additional 10% tariff, while corn is hit by an additional 15% fee.

“We are already in an unprofitable moment,” Lagran said. “Why are we trying to increase the insult to the harm to the AG sector by increasing taxes?”

Ragland noted that he “appreciated the president’s ability to negotiate” and hoped Trump would succeed for the country. However, he stressed that the industry, especially soybean producers, does not have any “resilient resilience that makes a trade war disappear from our bottom line”.

Ragland said of the emotions of other farmers: “People are upset. Product Support Program,other. “You’re talking about people’s livelihoods,” he said.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said last week that the Trump administration reportedly was Weighing exemptions for certain agricultural products Tariffs from Canada and Mexico. Trump’s adjustment measures included Potassium salt cuts tariffs by 10%used for fertilizer.

Ken Seitz of Canada said more than 80% of American farmers need potash. Nutrition – A Canadian-based crop input and service provider during the BMO Global Metals, Mining and Critical Minerals Conference last month.

“When we look at the impact of tariffs on Nutrien, the biggest discussion is about potash, because in any market with 10 million to 11 million tons in any given year, we supply 40% of that market ourselves,” the CEO of the company highlighted during the meeting. “We believe the cost of tariffs will be transferred to American farmers.”

Even when Trump’s tariffs are being implemented, American farmers are sending alarms. Despite the latest Purdue University/CME Group AG Economic Barometer Readings show that farmers’ sentiment improved overall in February, with 44% of respondents revealing that trade policy is most important to their farms over the next five years.

“Usually, when you ask a policy question, the most important policy is crop insurance,” said Michael Langemeier, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. “Crop insurance is right on apple pie and baseball. It’s a very favorite program because it provides a very effective safety net.”

He also said: “The fact that crop insurance is far from trade policy shows the quantity.”

The February survey also showed that nearly 50% of farmers said they believed the trade war that led to a sharp drop in U.S. agricultural exports was “probable” or “probably.” Langemeier estimates that between mid-February and early March, the net return on soybeans fell by 33%, related to tariffs. He revealed that this is the fact that 2025 “finally became an extremely profitable year.”

The economist believes that overall farmers’ sentiment may decline in the near term. He said the constructive consequence of the tariffs could be that they accelerated the signing of the new farm bill.

“Well, if you don’t even know what the amount of a farm bill is, then in the world, how do you come up with the amount of a trade payment,” Langemeier asserted. He expects the signing of the new farm bill to take place sometime this year.

Looking ahead to the upcoming spring, Bank of America analyst Steve Byrne wrote on February 25 that tariffs could lead to “more conservative crop input.” That would mean the risk of buying fertilizers reduced, which could affect not only Nutrien but other similar fertilizers. Mosaic and CF IndustryAnalysts pointed out.

Shares of these companies and other agricultural-related stocks Agco and Deerall of which were sold on March 3 and March 4 after Trump’s tariff announcement.

“I think we’ve seen AG stock sell-offs simply because of the widespread fear that farmers will not be profitable this year,” Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein said in an interview with CNBC.

Mosaic has fallen nearly 8% over the past month, while the CF industry has fallen more than 8%. Nutrien also lost over 1%. At that time, Agco and Deere performed better, achieving about 2% and about 1% respectively.

Goldstein saw no significance in how this trade war would affect American farmers in the long run. He expects global trade flows to shift and cancel each other over the next two to three years or so.

“While this year’s soybeans may have a near-term impact when there are no real buyers available, I think eventually we’ll see other countries start buying more of our soybeans,” the stock strategist said. “Maybe China bought more soybeans from Brazil, but maybe places like Europe and then bought more soybeans from the United States, we got … not much of a difference.”

For now, Brazil is expected to be the world’s largest soybean producer by the marketing year 2024/2025 Ministry of Agriculture. On the other hand, for corn, the United States is expected to be in the first place, 31% of global production In the marketing year.

Others on Wall Street believe tariffs will have a greater impact on trade dynamics.

Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen predicts that these responsibilities could solidify Brazil as a major global producer of corn and soybeans, while the United States will become an incremental supplier in the world.

“Brazil has particularly more capacity to increase its area, more capacity to grow to increase its share of global cereal trade,” she told CNBC. “Tariffs and some other decisions made by the government have only accelerated some of these decisions.”