Bitcoin Crashes, Fear Spikes—But Analyst Sees $153,000 Ahead
In his latest video update, long-term market analyst and self-proclaimed “four-year cycle” businessman Bob Loukas breaks down Bitcoin’s current trajectory. Despite a callback of about 22% from its most recent all-time high, Loukas asserts that the price action of leading cryptocurrencies remains “we’ve never seen it before.”
Lucas opened him video Traders are growing anxiety after acknowledging that Bitcoin has dropped from $110,000 to the mid-term $80,000 range. However, he stressed that this volatility is a natural component of Bitcoin’s characteristic volatility. “When I recorded this video of Bitcoin’s $87,000, it was lower than the historical height of $110,000 in history… Historically, even in this four-year cycle, this is basically 20% lower than the average (…) from its high.”
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin
Although Loukas stressed that internal corrections to this scale “does not necessarily mean a major surprise,” he also admitted that it is still possible in the near term. In his assessment, the temporary cascade was excluded, or even $80,000 out of $70,000, which would reflect about a 30% price cut – cannot be excluded:
“There is no reason why this current move cannot be reduced all the way to the low price of $80,000. External opportunities may also fall into $75,000 or $73,000 for $70,000. That is still within the historical volatility range of Bitcoin.”
According to Loukas, these corrective measures represent a conventional “fear reset”. He argues that later rising phases often trigger late-stage buyers during such pullbacks. However, in the context of Bitcoin A broader uptrendhe believes these stages historically paved the way for fresh gatherings.
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Loukas mainly constitutes his analysis a four-year cycle, which he divides into about six months of “weekly cycles.” He said each week’s cycle usually rises to two-thirds of its duration and then drops in the rest of the reset sentiment. Although the current callback has upset many traders, Loukas believes this is consistent with Bitcoin’s long-term cyclical pattern:
“Unless you think the four-year cycle has peaked (I don’t do that), I think it’s one of the normal, oscillating weekly cycles. We’ve witnessed many times E and flow.”
Loukas revealed that his first sales target for the model portfolio is about $153,000 per Bitcoin, depending on the current rate of decline. Starting from the mid-term of $80,000, his baseline scenario will likely move upward by 80% in the next multi-week upward. He stressed that this number can be modified based on the degree of decline in Bitcoin during this correction period.
Crucially, Loukas notes that if the next rebound shakys in a “weekly failed cycle” pattern, he remains open to the possibility of the top. He explained that once Bitcoin establishes a new short-term low (potential price close to $80,000 or reach $70,000), the next test for the market will be its recovery. If that rebound cannot surpass Previous highs approached $110,000 The newly established lows were subsequently weakened, which would indicate a deeper aspect:
“If we see a sharp counter-trend movement that rolls quickly, take out a new weekly cycle low, which is very worrying. This will indicate that the trend has changed and the four-year cycle has peaked.”
Decoupling of Bitcoin and altcoins
Although Loukas briefly mentioned the Altcoin market, he highlighted how this cycle seems to be different from the Altcoin Frenzies in the past. Lucas describedMajor decoupling“Bitcoin from other digital assets, noting the lack of ongoing retail or institutional interest in most alternative tokens: “No retail case, no retail traffic…so much (Altcoin) narratives have emerged…it seems like Trump coins are the most important, which may not be surprising in Hindsight. ”
At the same time, he insists that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a unique, more mature asset class, attracting interest in the traditional “crypto” field from pension funds, sovereign wealth managers and institutions.
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According to Loukas, Bitcoin’s monthly chart shows no concluding signs at the top of the cycle. He remains firmly convinced that the market has not yet fully played the last stop of its four-year history bull trend, which has reached its climax about 35 months after the last bear market low in previous cycles.
In the context, he noted that the lows of the current cycle took shape at the end of 2022, and if the precedent followed, the next potential peak was approaching the fall or winter of 2025: “We are in the third grade of the cycle. Time-wise, if this is after the previous four-year structure, we will have another leg higher, possibly an aggressive leg, about to enter the end of 2025. However, there is absolutely no absolute rhyming cycle. We stay alert and look for the warning sign at the last top – until I don’t think there is any reason to change the bullish view.”
Despite this bullish view, Loukas reiterates that no cyclical framework is correct. He outlines the potential failure of Bitcoin’s weekly cycle, especially if the new short-term rise is quickly reversed, the lower lows. He said such a move could prevent trend changes within the scope. Nevertheless, according to his judgment, probability is conducive to the continuation of the upward trend:
“Until we were ranked number one in the four-year cycle, I think we had to grin (shrink) and look to me through the timing of (…) that we were going through one of those periods, in which we were in a weekly cycle, before moving higher.”
At press time, BTC traded at $86,562.
Featured Images created with dall.e, Charts for TradingView.com
