Asian economies scramble to appease Trump as the U.S. president ratchets up tariff threats | Global News Avenue

With the ghost of Donald Trump’s reciprocity tariffs looming, some Asian economies with a large trade surplus with Washington are scrambling to negotiate favorable solutions with the U.S. president to prevent the hit by higher tariffs.

Trump said Friday that he will announce reciprocity tariffs – with the responsibilities of various countries imposing U.S. goods collection – effective immediately on Tuesday. Trump has not determined which country will be hit, but shows that it will be a tough effort to help eliminate the U.S. trade deficit.

Barclays said on Monday that although the details are unclear, “U.S. import tariffs could increase for most emerging Asian economies.”

According to World Trade Organization estimates, most economies in Asia have higher average tariffs on imports compared to the United States compared to 2023. India leads with a simple average of 17% The ratio of countries with the most popular national identity, Compared with the US 3.3%. Except for Russia, the United States enjoys the MFN status in most major economies.

Last year, China had the highest trade surplus with the United States at a price of $295.4 billion, followed by Vietnam’s $123.5 million, Taiwan’s $74 billion, Japan’s $68.5 billion, and South Korea’s $66 billion. According to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Stefan Angrick, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC that he stressed: “Just because these economies have avoided tariffs, it doesn’t mean they can Breathe easily.”

In these countries except Vietnam, Trump’s opening Salvo was insured due to close security ties with Washington and a large U.S. investment, but Angrick said: “They shouldn’t be Too comfortable.”

Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States soars nearly 18% each year Record high last year. This country’s Simple average tariff rate According to WTO data, it is 9.4% on MFN partners.

Drinks and tobacco imported into the country face tariffs of up to 45.5% on average, while tariffs for categories such as sugar and candy, fruits and vegetables, clothing and transportation equipment range from 14% to 34%.

Trump, called Vietnam in 2019 “almost Single Worst Abuse“ In trade practice, no public comments were made to the country after re-election in November.

Hanoi has been working to make trade compromises with Washington in recent months. In November, the country vowed to buy more Aircraft, liquefied natural gas and other products From the United States

Vietnamese Prime Minister last week Ask Cabinet members to prepare for impact A possible global trade war this year.

Vietnam was a major beneficiary of the trade barriers Trump imposed on Beijing during his first term, prompting manufacturers to transfer production to China. Therefore, Southeast Asian countries have become one of the biggest beneficiaries of foreign direct investment from China.

U.S. tariffs on Vietnam could double if the U.S. enforces “full tariff reciprocity,” Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at Mifg Bank Say in a comment on Monday. That is, he expects the U.S. to have less extreme stance on the country, and “taxes from some specific sectors” are more likely.

New Delhi Union budget cuts tariffs earlier this month On a range of products including motorcycles, electronics, critical minerals and lithium-ion batteries. Finance Minister Tuhin Kanta Pandey Said in an interview “We show that India is not the tariff king.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is It is reported that further discussion is prepared During a meeting with Trump later this week, tariffs cut more than a dozen departments and purchased more energy and defense equipment from the U.S. meeting.

India’s surplus with the United States, its third largest trading partner, It reached $45.7 billion last year. It is worth noting that the country’s imported agricultural goods bear a large 39% tariff.

He had a passionate relationship with Modi during his first semester, but during his re-election campaign, Trump once India is known as “very big abuser” Related taxes.

In a call with Modi last month, Trump stressed the importance of India buying more American-made equipment to achieveFair bilateral trading relationship“According to the White House statement.

Some market observers have proposed the idea that both sides may resume long-awaited discussions US-India Free Trade Agreement. The Joe Biden administration has It is reported that India’s interests are rejected Local media in India reported that the country’s business and industry ministers were the ones exploring the free trade agreement.

“Now, such a deal requires a significant reduction in tariffs in New Delhi because it has a much higher tariff rate than Washington; Trump believes in reciprocity to some extent.” In the Foreign Affairs Commission.

TENEO’s South Asia adviser Arpit Chaturvedi said India could also propose transferring its imported oil from Russia to the United States in aligned with Trump’s plan to promote oil and gas exports.

Analysts say Japan appears to have established a positive relationship with Trump and can avoid “current” tariff shielding. Wrapped with whirlwind visit to Washington On the weekend.

Tokyo insists The relatively low tariff is about 3.7% According to WTO data, in countries with MFN status. This shows that “there are very few major increases in Japanese commodity tariffs,” Nomura chief Japanese economist Kyohei Morita said in a report on Monday.

At last week’s summit, Japan Agree to import more natural gas From the United States, expressed interest in projects that transport LNG through pipelines in northern Alaska.

The two leaders also agreed to a compromise that Japan’s Japanese Steel would “invest heavily” in U.S. companies rather than acquire U.S. Steel. Ishiba said Japan will provide manufacturers with technically high-quality products for U.S. steel.

Japan, this is The largest foreign investor in the United States Five consecutive years It also promises to expand the investment To $1 trillion, from USD 783.3 billion in 2023.

Teneo Vice President James Brady said in a note on Saturday: “While Japan may not avoid all the impact of future U.S. tariff policies, Tokyo may avoid it with Canada, Mexico and Targeted treatment seen by countries such as China.”

“It may even be expected to have a more spacious trade treatment than other major economies, as it seems to enjoy the status of one of Trump’s most popular countries,” Brady said.

Tit measures in BeijingS-including 15% tax on U.S. coal, liquefied natural gas, 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural equipment, cars and pickup trucks-is believed to be moderate and restricted.

According to data compiled by Nomura, the tariff package is estimated to cover US$13.9 billion worth of Chinese imports from the United States, accounting for 8.5% of China’s total imports and 0.5% of China’s total imports.

Tommy Xie, head of Asian macro research at OCBC Bank, said in a note Monday that this is much lower than Trump’s first-semester target of $50 billion in U.S. goods.

The “calibration method” marks “a more diverse response to China’s choice”, whose non-TV countermeasures, such as export controls and regulatory detection of U.S. companies, also “leaving room for further negotiations,”