A recruitment sign was posted on August 22, 2024 at the door of the taco clock in Alexandria, Virginia.
Anna Rose Layden | Getty Images
The U.S. labor market may start in 2025 in a solid way, if it drops from places closed last year.
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its non-agricultural wage numbers in January, it was expected to show a growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but consistent with the average of the past three months. According to the Dow Jones consensus on the report, the report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday.
While the point may be that job creation is slowing, the broader view is that jobs are solid and this is unlikely to be a problem Fed At any time in the near future.
“The inflation rate so far has reached at least tolerant levels and the company is very comfortable making continuous investments, so there is no reason why it should not continue to see about 150,000 RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuella, chief economist, who is in charge of RSM every month. Joseph Brusuelas said. “In other words, we are fully employed. This is a good question. ”
By the time the Fed ended its last three meetings in 2024, it had lowered its main lending rates One full percentage point. In large part, this is because policymakers try to support a labor market that shows signs of weakness.
However, recent indicators show that while recruitment has been upgraded, layoffs have not increased and workers have not resigned. Vacancies It is descent.
This relative stability is a welcome signal, and is likely The Fed will be shelvedpossibly until the summer, officials are waiting to see the consequences of the president Donald Trumpinclude Active tariffs Oppose the United States’ largest trading partner.
“The economy is still continuing, people will make investment decisions and they get up every morning to go to work,” Brusuelas said.
Annual revisions focus on
While the usual payroll is expected to show more or less status quo, the market will also watch annual benchmark revisions for BLS-compiled institutional and household surveys.
When the preliminary revision was released in August 2024, they showed Amazing 818,000 jobs More than previously reported in the number of institutions reported from April 2023 to March 2024. With adjustments to immigration and population, this total is expected to drop significantly.
The revisions are also expected to show a record increase of 3.5 million and a record-breaking increase of 2.3 million household jobs, according to Goldman Sachs. The company believes that labor force participation and unemployment are more moderate.
The two BLS surveys vary greatly in the later years. A survey was established to calculate the number of non-agricultural wages, while the BLS derives the unemployment rate from the number of households. The latter’s view on employment conditions is not very optimistic and can be corrected through revisions.
Anyway, it is unlikely if the report arrives anywhere Move the needle to the Fed Even if the tariff problem lingers.
“The labor market is much more important to the Fed,” said Eric Winograd, director of research at Alliancebernstein, Developed Market Economy. “The wage numbers are volatile. Anything can happen in a given month. But nothing special makes me think Prints this month look meaningful to the past few months, which is enough to put the Fed on hold.”
In addition to title salary figures and revisions, BLS will also publish data at average hourly earnings.
It is estimated that wages rose by 0.3% in January, up 3.7%. If the annual figure is correct, it will be the lowest level since July 2024.
