Punxsutawney Phil Predicts More Winter, but Just How Accurate Is He?
The Turkish mouse arrived on Sunday, February 2nd, and the most famous Turkitist prophet PunxSutaWney Phil saw his shadow, thereby predicting the six weeks of winter. Boooo, saying that those of us are tired of catching a cold. But there are some questions about Phil’s accuracy. In fact, a opponent is called Shathan Sam Boaz in Alabama predicts that he has not seen his shadow this year. In any case, what is the accuracy of these animal prognosis agents?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration inspected PunxsutaWney Phil’s Track Record Last year, it was discovered that there was a lack of predictions of ambiguity. This year, Noaa learned from the achievements of the Turkish Rat Day, The job of scoring 19 Turkish mouse The soil mouse replaces the accuracy of its prediction. Spoiler: Phil entered the 17th place.
A native mouse was bitten on some vegetation in Virginia.
NoAA Ranking to Turkish Mouse
NoAA sets some basic rules. Turkey and “alternative earth mouse” must be predicted for at least 20 years, and as of February 2, 2024, it must also be active. Competitors include 13 local mouse, 3 earth mouse, 3 animal specimen -style earth mouse, one I have never seen a creature Suppose it is a native mouse, the statue and the turtle of the grassland dog.
NoAA uses data from its national environmental information center, which retains the archives of the ocean, weather and climate data. The institution compared the record of Turkish mouse from the March temperature in the United States from 2005 to 2024.
Chuck is the wooden house of Stanton Island Zoo in New York City. Chuck is also known as Charles G. Hogg, ranking 85 % with 85 % accuracy. When Michael Bloomberg tried to coax him to participate in the daily ritual of the Turkish mouse, he was famous for the mayor in 2009.
The second best native mouse is General Beauregard Lee dauset trails natural center The accuracy of Jackson in Georgia is 80 %. The third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of grassland dogs in Lander, Wyoming. The accuracy of Lander Lil is 75 %. Turkish mouse did not live in Wyoming, but the grassland dog did not. The prognosis principle is the same. If Lander Lil “see” shadow on the Turkish Rat Day, it is expected to have more winter.
PunxsutaWney Phil how to perform
Mojave Max (Mojave Max) is a desert turtle, as shown in the national park service image.
Overall, 14 earth mouse has 50 % accuracy or higher. Poor PunxSutawney Phil only managed 35 % accuracy and reduced him to the bottom of the ranking. At least he compares Mohaw MaxThe desert turtle in the Sprins Reserve in Nevada occupied the last place with 25 % accuracy.
However, the ranking of Mojave Max may be unfair. On the day of Turkey, turtles will not be marched. His prediction was based on when he came out (such as hibernation of reptiles). MAX gets up at a certain time from February to April every year.
“The temperature is higher, and the longer daylight and his own internal clock are the factors that appear every year,” Clark County Desert Protection Plan saidEssence His appearance marks the informal beginning of spring in southern Nevada.
Since the late 1800s, on the Gobbler’s KNOB of PunxsutaWney, Pennsylvania, the Turkish Mouse Day has always been a tradition and is still very powerful. NOAA’s exposure to Woodchuck weather forecast will not damage the joy of celebration. Phil lacks the accuracy that makes up for pure reputation, cuteness and charm. Therefore, continue to cheer for Phil, but maybe your spring plan is based on the rodent of Stanton Island instead of PunxsutaWney.
