Mortgage Predictions Weekly: What Fewer Fed Cuts Mean for Homebuyers
Average 30 -year fixed mortgage loan interest rate Stay near the steep 7 % A few weeks. Although President Donald Trump claimed that he would reduce the mortgage interest rate to 3 %, which indicates Serious economic crisis -Apinning does not set interest rates for housing loans.
Even if the Fed has set a short -term benchmark interest rate for the loan, only Indirectly affecting the mortgage marketEssence It is expected that the Fed will remain stable at the first policy meeting of this week From January 28 to 29Essence
In the late 2024 period, the central bank was cut three times, but mortgage loans The rate has not decreasedEssence This is because the interest rate is mainly driven by the mobile market, especially the 10 -year fiscal yield. Bond yields and interest rates rising or decreased, specifically depending on how New economic data Policy transfer market speculation and risk assessment.
Now, Mortgage rate It was improved due to the combination of factors: the economic growth of “strong”, the new Trump administration and the Federal Reserve in 2025 were lower.
Since the beginning of the second term, Trump has been with him Policies around immigration and tradeMany experts believe that this is inflation.
“When the burden is nearly ten years, higher tariffs and restricted immigration policies will increase the cost of buyers.” Matt WalshMoody’s analysis of housing economists.
As investors speculate in the future, mortgage interest rates will continue to fluctuate. If the inflation rate remains high or starts to rebound, no matter how the president promises to reduce the cost of borrowing, the interest rate of mortgage loans will increase.
“In terms of mortgage interest rate, we depend on data than ever before.” Greg Sher (Greg Sher)Become a direct NFM leader.
Is the Federal Reserve Council the prospect of changing the mortgage interest rate?
In view of the slow progress of inflation and concerns about heating, it is expected that the Fed will remain unchanged at the next policy meetings.
“The earliest tax rate that may be reduced will be March. This is the fascinating (inflation) decline in the two reports from the present to the present.” Matt Graham (Matt Graham) Daily mortgage news. As of now, most Investors are betting It is not until the late spring or early summer that another reduction will appear.
Without additional layoffs, the Fed may face the pressure of new presidents. When a virtual appearance on the Davos World Economic Forum on Thursday, Trump said he would Require interest rate decline Immediately.
Trump said: “I think I am much better than the interest rates they know than they know, and I think I must be much better than those who are mainly responsible for making decisions.” The oval office was on Thursday. “If I disagree, I will know.”
But Only so many Trump can do it About central banks. In addition to expressing opinions, the most direct power of the President of the Central Bank is to fill the vacancy of the board of directors through the appointed person.
Similar to the Supreme Court, President can appoint members of the federal board, and their views on monetary policy are consistent with their own views. However, the earliest Trump will be able to conduct any new appointment in early 2026.
Will the interest rate of mortgage loans in the spring purchase season decrease in time?
The interest rate of mortgage loans is always changing, but buyers should expect More turbulent than usual In the next few months.
Earlier last year, many economists predicted that interest rates would drop to less than 6 % in early 2025. However, as Trump’s reelection and the Federal Reserve announced a lower policy in 2025, the forecast of mortgage interest rates has risen.
Fannie Mae Now it is expected to be average 30 years of fixed mortgage loan interest rate Until early 2025, it held more than 6.5 % of the shares. At the same time, Moody’s Walsh is expected to have an average of less than 7 % in the year average.
Economic data for next month can always change Formula. “If economic data starts to weaken, we may have seen the peak interest rate of that year.” Logan Mohtashami (Logan Mohtashami)Chief Analysts of Housingwire.
In CNET 2025 mortgage forecastMohtashami pointed out that it may still reach a range of 6 % in 2025. However, if the new economic policy charging inflation or increasing government debt is insufficient, it is difficult to achieve this goal, especially in the spring purchase season.
See the housing market in 2025
Today’s Unbearable housing market Results from high mortgage loan interest rates Long -term housing shortageExpensive house prices and purchasing power due to inflation.
🏠 Low housing list: The balanced housing market is usually supplying five to six months. Today, most of the markets are about half of them. according to Freddie MacWe still lack about 3.7 million houses.
贷 Lift the mortgage loan Speed rate: In early 2022, the mortgage interest rate reached a historical low of 3 %. As the inflation rate has soared, the Fed has tamed interest rates and the interest rate of mortgage loans has increased by more than doubled. In 2025, the interest rate of mortgage loans is still very high, and millions of potential buyers will start from the housing market.
应 Treat rate lock effect: Since most homeowners are Lock the mortgage interest rate For people less than 5 %, they are unwilling to give up the interest rate of low mortgage loans. There is almost no motivation to list the sale of houses, and the remaining resale inventory.
🏠 High price high: Although the demand for house purchase has been restricted in recent years, house prices are still high due to lack of inventory. The median house price in the United States is $ 427,179 Redfin said that in December, an annual increase of 6.2 %.
膨 steep inflation: Inflation means increased the cost of basic products and services, thereby reducing purchasing power. This also affects the mortgage interest rate: When the inflation rate is high, the loan party usually increases the interest rate of consumer loans to ensure profit.
Which buyers should know
Entering entry is never a good idea Buy a house I don’t know what you can afford, so please build a clear housing budget. This is what experts recommend before buying a house:
评 Establish your credit score. Your credit score will help determine whether you are qualified to obtain a mortgage loan and what interest rates. one Credit score In the case of 740 or higher, it will help you get lower interest rates.
付 Save greater down payment. Larger down payment You are allowed to take out a smaller mortgage loan and get a lower interest rate from the loan. If you afford it, at least 20 % of the down payment will also eliminate private mortgage insurance.
款 Shopping mortgage loan. A loan offer from multiple mortgagers can help you Higher negotiation rateEssence Experts suggest that you get at least two to three loans from different lenders.
💰 Consider renting a house. choose Rent or buy a house Not only compare monthly rent with mortgage payment. Leasing provides flexibility and reduced early costs, but purchases allow you to establish wealth and have more control over housing costs.
💰 Consider the mortgage point. You can get a lower mortgage interest rate by buying Mortgage pointA total loan amount costs 1 % per point. One mortgage point is equal to your mortgage interest rate decreased by 0.25 %.
