How will UK prepare for Trump? Keir Starmer, David Lammy and others draw up plans | Global News Avenue

“Everyone was nervous – because they had no idea what he was going to do.”

For governments, business bosses, military chiefs, this is the basic truth about Trump, and maybe you can feel it too as he prepares to officially announce his incredible political comeback.

he will Sworn in for the second time on Mondaybecame the most powerful man in the Western world, in charge of Britain’s largest trading partner. Before long, he could sign executive orders that could affect how Britain earns a living or defends itself.

The scope of risk is enormous. There are also many opportunities.

Trump and his team are different this time around, better prepared and perhaps more aggressive in their agenda, but his joy in keeping the world guessing seems undimmed. It is this uncertainty that Trump has created that has alarmed Whitehall and Westminster.

How can the UK prepare for something it doesn’t yet know?

A small group of senior ministers have been working hard.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary David Lamy and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds reportedly held a series of secret “mini-cabinet” meetings “in an attempt to Make plans for what might happen” one source.

One insider told me there wasn’t much preparation for multiple specific scenarios because “you’d drive yourself crazy” trying to guess Trump’s next move. But another source said various documents were ready to be presented to the wider cabinet.

I’m told the focus has been on “looking for opportunities” rather than worrying about whether Trump will follow through on some of his more outlandish rhetoric, such as annex canada.

The prime minister has chosen one of Labour’s most cunning operators, Lord Mandelson, to be his spokesman in Washington, who on Friday chose to write an article for Trump’s favorite news outlet, Fox News. After being extremely rude about Trump in the recent past, he now heaps praise on him – and he’s not the only Labor figure to change his tune.

(As we revealed In our Thursday newsletter(Sadly for Mandelson’s border collies and schnauzers Jock and Poppy, the Foreign Office’s travel budget did not allow them to travel caninely to Washington, D.C., aboard the ocean liner Queen Mary 2).

Trump may not have been in power during his last term, but in Westminster and the City of London he is widely remembered for his late-night social media posts that sparked madness.

We were determined not to participate in the circus this time.

“We will remain calm and flexible,” one senior source said diplomatically.

Another source who has dealt with Trump said less politely: “Trump will say things that will make Labor MPs angry – don’t simply say the Prime Minister is personally unhappy. Put on your big nappies and don’t Ignore it.”

A hallmark of our relationship with “key allies,” as one senior government source described it, is helping to keep each other safe. The amount of unknowns is deeply unsettling for Westminster and other allied capitals at a uniquely unstable time around the world.

There is no doubt that the intelligence and security relationship is very close and has remained so throughout Trump’s first term – despite some considerable surprises on the British side.

One source recalled that “the most jaw-dropping incident occurred after the Salisbury attack” when two Russian agents used the nerve agent Novichok on British streets. President Trump, who was at Checkers with then-British Prime Minister Theresa May and her team, seemed unwilling to take the attack as seriously as Britain had asked.

One of those present explained: “We argued about how bad and destabilizing this was – and he asked why. We said a country with nuclear weapons used this on the soil of another country with nuclear weapons, and he said, ‘I No one knew Britain had nuclear weapons.'”

But during his first term, while Trump appeared to be a threat to NATO, his bellicose rhetoric did prompt more European countries to spend extra money on defense. The Abraham Accords were signed, although they did not lead to lasting peace in the Middle East, as Trump boasted at the time. But they did make progress.

However, there is real anxiety within the government about what it calls a “nightmare scenario.”

If the United States cuts support for Ukraine, emboldening Russia, Europe may not agree on how — or whether — to fight. This could lead to the fragmentation and fundamental weakening of the Western defense alliance NATO. However, sources questioned whether this was actually in Trump’s interests. After all, he needs allies and a united West to confront America’s biggest rival, China.

While dealing with unpredictability, Trump wildly threatens to make Canada 51st state or Capture Greenland – Sources within the government also see an opportunity. “There are many options in Ukraine and the Middle East. We need to work together to influence the U.S. approach on these foreign policy priorities,” one senior source said.

Sources pointed to a weaker Iran, progress on a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel, and a growing perception that both sides want an end to the conflict in Ukraine. One insider said Trump’s bravado about ending the war in one day had softened into a three- to six-month ambition and “there is no sign of a rush to give up now”.

But there is a feeling in Kyiv and Whitehall that negotiations are imminent. Britain wants to help shape America’s approach rather than panic about America stepping up its efforts.

While the administration is still a long way from accepting Trump’s demands, such as increasing defense spending to 5%, senior Whitehall officials privately acknowledge that his demands for more money to spend on European defense are incomplete. is correct. This is illogical—and helpful to those who advocate spending more money on defense.

While some hedge fund traders may profit from the volatility Trump could cause, there is plenty of nervousness in other parts of the economy.

This is partly due to his tendency to talk loudly. A City source said: “You’re always on the tip of your tongue waiting for the next wacky idea or for him to say something crazy that will impact your business and a $10bn deal is in the works in, and you’re already three-quarters of the way there. “

It wasn’t just his late-night postings online that were causing concern. One of his pitches to the American public is to help those who trade domestically by imposing taxes or tariffs on imported products, making it much more expensive for other countries to sell products to the United States.

but as The International Monetary Fund issued a warning yesterdayimposing additional tariffs on other countries could hit them hard and affect the profitability of the rest of the world.

Cabinet members realize how skewed it would be if Trump followed his advice. One minister told me: “This is an important moment in history—the United States’ commitment to a different way of doing business than it has essentially been since World War II.”

The minister acknowledged that the other two major trading blocs, China and the European Union, were likely to push back, which could lead to “huge consequences of a global trade war.”

Another senior figure warned that Britain might struggle to play a role in a conflict of this scale, saying “there will be an arm-wrestle between the three – they won’t be too focused on British interests or our interests”.

As Trump pursues deregulation and tax cuts with the help of Elon Musk, a City insider says Britain could fall out of favor because of Trump’s ambition to build an economy very different from ours , which may create tensions of its own.

But another City insider pointed out that the stock market was “one of the indicators he cares about most” and that it is driven by big tech companies, many of which rely on selling products to China. “A romance with a tech bro means he won’t want to spoil too much,” they said.

Whether it’s the economy, Ukraine or any other issue, the relationship between the president and the prime minister is absolutely crucial.

There is a world of difference between Starmer and Trump. A showdown between a lawyer leader known as “Mr. Rules” and a convicted felon who has made a career out of acting like the rules don’t apply to him.

Forget all the noise, a No 10 source said, noting the pair met in the autumn and have made three phone calls since then. “What really matters is direct dialogue – whatever Trump’s personal style, it’s clear the substance is there,” they said, adding that the prime minister’s calm demeanor helped.

But others who have worked with Trump in the administration and have had phone calls with him and former prime ministers warn how difficult it could be. “On a good day, it’s great, on a bad day, you hunker down,” a source said.

Another former official who attended a meeting between Trump and Boris Johnson said “they were like two silverback deer wrestling”, making staff next door laugh until they cried. Johnson would “flatter him” to get what he wanted.

The official also answered a call between Trump and Theresa May. These were completely different, “not only did he have a hint of misogyny but he would yell at her”, talk about the Queen or invite her to play golf, rather than discuss the tough topics May wanted to raise.

They believe that dealing with Trump will be Sir Keir’s biggest challenge: “We sent him a vicar’s daughter, then a pirate who knew how to deal with him, and now a human rights lawyer,” they said. And added, “This doesn’t work in a growing world. Just like the era of the strong in the 1930s.”

Whatever happens behind the scenes, defending Trump’s decision is likely to make the prime minister, America’s closest ally, deeply uncomfortable.

A former No. 10 official said: “If Trump says there must be division in Ukraine, Boris will say terrible, the rest of Labor will say terrible, but if Starmer doesn’t sell it to Europe, Trump will Angry, he will be angry.” Will punish him. ”

Starmer’s allies were more optimistic, arguing that “the politics don’t have to match up for the relationship to be successful”.

Success is what they must hope for. Labor is known to prefer Democrats, with some staffers even knocking on the door for Kamala Harris.

The question for the government is how to influence Trump to get what Britain wants, and how to keep its head above water when the inevitable drama comes.

One foreign policy insider told me: “It may come at a cost, but it is in our interest that he succeeds rather than in bad tempers.”

The incoming president may be both a symbol of and a product of the changing and uncertain times we live in. As one minister said, “Everything is going Trump’s way.”

There’s no telling what a second Donald Trump would do. But after his incredible comeback and months of tension on both sides of the Atlantic, we don’t have to wait too long.

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