How Tariffs on Chinese Goods Could Affect Your Grocery Bill
Amid coverage of President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on China, too little attention has been paid to their impact on common items in your grocery cart: the garlic that turns your pasta sauce off, your kids’ lunch boxes Apple juice and honey sweetener in your tea – all of which are imported to the US from China and quickly come with a higher price tag.
Instead, political focus has been on the United States’ massive electronics trade with China. However, smartphones and other electronic equipment account for less than one-third of the $5 trillion in Chinese goods imported into the United States each year. The remaining products include pharmaceuticals, clothing, and food. Below, we’ll walk you through what these tariffs mean for your grocery bill.
Main points
- Tariffs are taxes levied by a government on goods and services imported from another country. These taxes are typically designed to increase the cost of foreign goods, shifting demand to domestic suppliers.
- While electronics, machinery and plastics account for the majority of U.S. imports from China, Chinese foods and ingredients, including soaps, flour, seafood and spices, are widely available in U.S. grocery stores.
- The proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods would not only affect imported products, but also American-made products that use Chinese materials for production, processing and packaging.
Which foods will be more expensive?
As you stroll down many of your usual grocery store aisles, you’ve likely felt the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Seafood prices are likely to see the biggest increases – China will supply about $2 billion worth of fish and seafood products to the U.S. market in 2024. Prices for everyday items such as frozen shrimp and tilapia, which come in large quantities from China, could rise immediately. Other foods, such as salmon, are often produced in the United States and processed in China and therefore count as Chinese goods.
Everyday cooking staples can also become more expensive. China is the world’s largest garlic producer, accounting for more than 80% of global production. U.S. consumers may also notice higher prices on items such as apple juice concentrate, certain teas and spices, and processed foods, many of which rely on Chinese ingredients.
Even U.S.-grown produce could become more expensive. American farmers rely on fertilizers made in China, while food manufacturers use Chinese materials for packaging and processing. Any increase in production costs is likely to be passed on to consumers, affecting prices across the grocery store, from fresh produce to packaged foods. Here are the items most likely to be affected:
- apple juice
- cereals
- coffee
- Dairy products, such as dairy products and eggs
- fish and crustaceans
- flour and starch
- fruits and nuts
- garlic
- Honey
- vegetables (especially corn)
- vegetable oils
- Soaps, lubricants, waxes, candles, styling creams
- spices
- sugar
- Tea
- vinegar
- wheat
Will the Temu loophole be closed?
In 2024, the Biden administration Move to close This exception allows popular cross-border e-commerce companies such as Temu and Schein to avoid paying import taxes. The so-called “de minimis” loophole means that foreign companies shipping packages worth less than $800 can do so without paying duties above that limit — and bewildered U.S. Customs and Border Patrol estimates that Americans are passing 1 billion packages will be received this way by 2024. Any changes to the rules will not take effect until the end of the first quarter of 2025.
What this means for your grocery bill
The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that a typical middle-income household may pay about $2,600 more per year for all goods, with much of that coming from rising food costs. Low-income households, which spend most of their income on groceries, are hardest hit.
Price increases don’t happen day by day, but over time. Retailers may absorb some initial cost increases to remain competitive, but ultimately have to pass the increased costs on to consumers. Some grocery chains may find alternative suppliers from other countries, but will have to establish new suppliers supply chain It takes time and may also increase costs.
bottom line
If President-elect Trump’s new trade policies go as planned, it could mean higher prices at grocery stores, economists say. These policies will raise prices for imported foods such as garlic and seafood, as well as U.S.-made products that rely on Chinese materials. Although some Retailer Consumers should prepare for gradual increases in food prices in 2025 and beyond, as manufacturers may absorb initial cost increases or find alternative suppliers.