Gaza ceasefire: What can we expect?
ReutersIsrael and Hamas are believed to be close to a deal that could halt the war in Gaza and free Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
It would be the most dramatic breakthrough in the 15-month war, which began in October 2023 when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel.
What might a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas include?
It was hoped the ceasefire would mean a deal to stop the war raging in Gaza.
Hostages and prisoners are also expected to be exchanged.
Hamas held 251 hostages during its attack on Israel in October 2023. Although Israel believes only 60 people are still alive, 94 hostages are currently being held.
Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for years, in exchange for hostages.
How will the ceasefire agreement be implemented?
Once a deal is announced, the ceasefire is expected to unfold in three phases.
Details are still being finalized. The agreement is subject to change before it is finalized.
first stage
A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first phase, 34 hostages – expected to be civilians – will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
Three hostages will be released immediately and the remaining exchanges will take place within six weeks.
At this stage, Israeli troops will also begin to withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza.
Palestinian officials said detailed negotiations for the second and third phases will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
second stage
In the second phase, the remaining hostages – soldiers and reservists – will be released in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners.
Israel is believed to have agreed to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, about 190 of whom are serving sentences of 15 years or more. People convicted of murder will not be released to the occupied West Bank, an Israeli official told the BBC.
During this phase, Israel will also allow displaced persons currently in southern Gaza to return to the north.
As a result of the fighting, almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been forced from their homes.
The third stage
The third and final phase will involve the reconstruction of Gaza, which could take years.
Israeli officials said that during the ceasefire, Israeli troops will remain in the buffer zone or safe zone inside Gaza.
ReutersWhat are some of the outstanding questions about the deal?
Reaching this point required months of painstaking indirect negotiations, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrusted each other.
Hamas wants a complete end to the war before releasing the hostages, something Israel cannot accept.
The ceasefire agreement will effectively suspend the war while its terms are enforced.
However, it’s unclear whether this means the war is over for good.
One of Israel’s main war goals is to destroy Hamas’s military and governance capabilities. Despite the severe damage Israel has inflicted on it, Hamas still has some ability to operate and reorganize.
It is unclear which hostages are alive or dead, or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those unaccounted for.
Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners, but Israel has said it will not release them. This is believed to include those involved in the October 7 attack.
It is unclear whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date, or whether its presence there will be indefinite.
Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that briefly halted previous wars faltered and eventually collapsed amid skirmishes.
The timeline and complexity of this ceasefire means that even minor incidents can turn into major threats.
What happened on October 7, 2023 and what happened in Gaza?
Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen have launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and military bases.
About 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 hostages were taken back to Gaza. Hamas has also fired thousands of rockets into Israel.
Israel responded with a massive military campaign, first an air offensive and then a ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets across Gaza from land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.
The Israeli offensive has devastated Gaza and caused severe food shortages, making it difficult for aid to reach those who need it most. Israeli attacks have killed more than 46,600 people, mostly civilians, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.
