What’s At Stake For Africa In 2025
go through Michelle Gavin
No one expected the incoming Trump administration to focus heavily on Africa policy. But the Africa portfolio in 2025 will provide ample opportunities to preserve or undermine U.S. leadership, protect or jeopardize U.S. interests, and align with or against African societies.
The peace and security agenda is particularly worrisome. Instability in the Horn of Africa Sudan’s ongoing conflict But also including Somalia and Ethiopia, which will be joined by expanding violent extremism in the Sahel, driving an urgent need for humanitarian assistance and an increasingly urgent need to find capable security partners, as Limitations of Russian aid become clear. At the same time, the lack of an effective diplomatic resolution to the conflict will create new opportunities for countries like Türkiye and Qatar to expand their influence and compete with regional rivals. latest Angola-led talks collapse The conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda raises the possibility that the conflict in eastern Congo – which will continue to be costly in any case – could escalate and could have potentially destabilizing spillover effects.
Anyone who tries to dismiss these issues as “African issues” that have nothing to do with the United States must contend with their impact on freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, a vital commercial corridor, and on the strengthening of terrorist groups eager to harm the United States. nation. No change in Washington’s ideology can undo Importance of the Congo Basin the future of the world, or the need for critical minerals to power the next major economic transformation.
Whether the United States pays attention or not, China, Russia, Gulf states and others will continue to seek influence and access across the continent in pursuit of their own grand strategies. Strengthening commercial diplomacy is crucial if the United States hopes to compete in the region, but Washington’s new team will face The trade preference system that is about to expire and multiple partners in debt distress—all while the region’s workforce continues to grow much faster than job creation.
Elections in 2025 in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania could further weaken support for democracy in the region and create new opportunities for powers looking to stoke discontent and find Western scapegoats. positive democratic development In places like Zambia and Senegal, where governments have very limited fiscal space to provide their citizens, these countries will be threatened.
An increasingly just America may not feel the consequences of neglect immediately, but there is no doubt that it will eventually experience them. Any incoming Africa team will face the daunting task of addressing threats, seizing opportunities, and persuading senior policymakers to make more space for the U.S.-Africa agenda.
Origin Source: council on foreign relations
