What the Last Triple-Witching of 2024 Could Mean For Your Stocks
Main points
- The simultaneous expiration of three derivatives – known as a “triple wizard” – could amplify volatility in financial markets on Friday.
- The final triple spell of the year comes as market participants anxiously await a deal to keep the federal government funded after midnight.
- Retail investors who buy and hold won’t have to worry about Friday’s volatility, but the event, especially the last hour of the day, could provide opportunities for active traders.
Stock traders and investors have a lot to worry about on Friday. On Saturday morning, not only was the federal government considering a government shutdown, but Wall Street was awaiting a triple witchcraft and the volatility that would come with it.
triple witchcraft refers to expiry at the same time stock optionsindex options and stock index futures. It occurs four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September and December. Triple witches often trigger a flurry of activity when investors are forced to close or expand their positions, and this activity can create volatility.
Friday will be the final triple disaster of the year, coming just days after the worst stock selloff in months. S&P 500 Index Plunged 3% After Wednesday’s Fed meeting reduce It forecast a rate cut next year, noting that the outlook for inflation has become more uncertain in recent months.
Stocks had been rising sharply before Wednesday since Donald Trump was re-elected president last month. Stocks released their Maximum monthly income It posted its best performance of the year in November and continued to trade near all-time highs through the first half of December.
Index rebalancing is also a focus
Friday’s triple witchcraft will also be paired with rebalance Major indexes including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Software company Workday (working day) and asset manager Apollo Global Management (apolipoprotein) will replace Technology hardware company Qorvo (QRVO) and engineering firm Amentum Holdings (AMTM) in the S&P 500 effective Monday morning.
AI darling Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Bitcoin Broker MicroStrategy (Magnetic transmission technology) and Taser maker Axon Enterprise (axon) will replace Biotechnology Illumina (ILMN), AI server manufacturer Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and vaccine maker Moderna (messenger RNA) on the Nasdaq 100, also effective Monday. All of these stocks are likely to see particularly high volume and volatility on Friday.
Buy-and-hold investors have nothing to worry about
While Triple Witchcraft can lead to unusual trading volumes and some surprising price moves, buy-and-hold investors don’t have to worry too much. Any volatility associated with options and futures activity should be short-lived. Additionally, Wall Street is aware that triple witches bring volatility, so unexpected price moves are unlikely to have much of an impact on market sentiment.
Today, active traders have more incentive to pay attention, and not just because they are more likely than the average retail investor to own contracts that are about to expire. the last hour of the day, triple witching hoursometimes resulting in less liquid market For certain securities. That can increase spread and provides savvy traders with the opportunity to trade the same security in multiple markets at different prices, known as arbitrage.