Mortgage Predictions for March 17, 2025: Markets Await Fed Decision
After seven weeks of winning streak, Mortgage Rate Reversal course, current average interest rate for fixed home loans for 30 years About 6.7%.
This week, investors are doing Fed’s interest rate forecastalthough fears that potential recession and uncertain trade policies are under pressure on financial markets. Mortgage rates related to bond markets have fueled momentum due to President Trump’s on-site tariffs, stock market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.
Tax transactions this week
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Central banks are expected to keep interest rates stable at a FAP meeting on Wednesday – despite inflation, increased unemployment and slower economic growth may force the Fed to lower interest rates in late spring or early summer. In the long run, a benchmark federal funding rate reduction will indirectly reduce other consumer lending rates, such as mortgages.
Fannie Mai Project Mortgage The ratio remains above 6.5% For most of the year. However, lenders base their interest rates on a range of factors and do not set the forecast to stone. Given the instability of the economy, any sign of risk or disruption could change the trajectory of mortgage rates.
For example, if there is a chance of an economic downturn, mortgage rates may start to fall, but they need to be close to 5.5% to bring buyers to market on a large scale. Alex ThomasSenior Research Analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
While cheap home loan rates are positive for housing affordability, a shaky economy can freeze the housing market. “If lower mortgage rates are the result of the recession, housing demand may be muted,” Thomas said.
What happened to the mortgage market this week?
The key question is how the Trump administration’s economic austerity measures and trade policies will What affects the Fed Adjust interest rates in the coming months. At the FOMC meeting from March 18 to 19, the central bank will release a latest summary of economic forecasts outlining policymakers’ outlook for interest rates in 2025.
The Fed’s mission is to maintain maximum employment and include inflation. A slow economy usually requires lower interest rates to stimulate growth, but when inflation remains viscous, lower interest rates too quickly promote price growth.
Although the latest data does not show a surge in unemployment or a surge in inflation, it does not have enough time to cook in real time. For example, the wave of federal layoffs and layoffs has not yet been a continuing trend in official labor data. “To change its policy stance, the Fed will need more than a month of negative employment data.” Julia Pollakchief economist at Ziprecruiter.
This is because the numbers and statistics economists and the Fed rely on are backward looking, while investors make moves based on expectations and speculation. “It may take some time for us to see the data catching sentiment, but it’s clear that it’s hard for businesses and consumers to calibrate their future plans right now,” Thomas said.
Mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate until the economic impact of government policies becomes clearer. Tariffs are widely considered inflation, but they can prove temporary and only translate into one-time price increases in goods and services.
What is the prospect of the housing market this year?
In addition to daily volatility, mortgage rates may remain above 6% for a period of time. With the nearest 2% interest rate A pandemic era. But experts say it is unlikely that fixed mortgages will fall below 3% in 30 years without a severe recession. Since the 1970s, 30 years fixed mortgage loan About 7%.
Potential home buyers Wait for mortgage rates to fall In the past few years, it may be necessary to adapt to the “new normal” in the mortgage market, with interest rates fluctuating between 5% and 7% in the long run.
Today’s An unaffordable housing market Not only due to the high mortgage rates. one Long-term housing shortageOver the past few years, expensive house prices and loss of purchasing power due to inflation have locked buyers in place.
Expert skills for home buyers
and Spring home buying season With a quick approach, potential homebuyers wonder whether to enter the market or continue to wait outside the market. It’s never a good idea to rush into Buy a house No clear budget was established.
Here is what the experts suggest before buying a home:
💰Build your credit score. Your credit score will help determine if you are eligible for a mortgage and at what interest rate. one Credit Score At 740 or higher, it will help you get lower interest rates.
💰 Save a bigger down payment. Bigger down payment Allows you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from the lender. If you can afford it, a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate private mortgage insurance.
💰Shopping Mortgage Lender. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you Negotiate higher rates. Experts recommend getting at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders.
💰 Consider the mortgage point. You can get a lower mortgage rate by purchasing Mortgage Pointeach point costs 1% of the total loan amount. One mortgage point equals your mortgage rate drops by 0.25%.
