president Donald Trump Other senior White House officials have spent days supporting Americans in the past few days to achieve a potential economic slowdown, which they say will then lead to a marching stronger growth.
Fear brews Potential tariff impactthis Labor market slows down The indicator points to possible negative growth in the first quarter, with the president and his top lieutenant predicting that there are very optimistic warnings of recent swelling.
“There was a transition period because we were doing a lot,” Trump said on the Fox News show “The Future of Sunday Morning” Sunday. “We brought wealth back to the United States. It was a big thing. … It took a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
Asked if he thought the recession was imminent, Trump said: “I don’t want to predict something like this.” He later added: “Look, we’re going to be disrupted, but we agree.”
U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Florida, Washington, DC, USA on March 7, 2025, to Florida, to Florida, to board the Marine Corps.
Evelyn Hawkstan | Reuters
The comments were conducted during a turbulent period in the market, and according to news of the day, the stock continued to roller coaster. The main average glides againas recent White House guarantees are not helpful to alleviate tensions in the market.
When Trump expressed his progress on Wall Street’s continuous barometer during his tenure, he was discouraged to make it a yardage this time.
“What I’m going to do is build a strong country,” he said. “You can’t really watch the stock market.”
The “detox period” of expenditure
An emerging theme for the administration is that any slowdown or reversal of growth is the legacy of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, and his debt and defect stimulus. Finance Minister Scott Bessent called for the “rebalancing” of the economy to stay away from fiscal and monetary scope.
“As we move from public spending to private spending, there will be natural adjustments.” Bessent said Friday On CNBC. “The market and the economy are just fascinated by, and we are already obsessed with government spending, and there will be a detox period.”
This adjustment may be earlier than later.
Atlanta Fed follows gdpnow The scale of incoming economic data is tracking the decline in growth by 2.4% in the first quarter. If it sticks to it – the measure may be volatile, especially early in the quarter – it will be the negative first quarter in three years and the largest layoff since the common pandemic.
National Economic Commission Director Kevin Hassett called the GDPNOW outlook “President Biden’s succession” and “a very, very temporary phenomenon” in an interview with CNBC on Monday.
“There are many reasons to be extremely bullish on the future economy,” he said. “But it is certain that there are some spots in the data for the quarter, including negative GDPNOW, which is both related to Biden’s succession and some timing effects that occurred before the tariffs.”
Speech to NBC’s “Meet the Media” on Sunday “There will be no recession in the United States. … If Donald Trump brings growth to the United States, I will never bet on recession, no chance,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Worry about work and consumers
A big move to the Federal Reserve model is Trade deficit surges January hit a record $131.4 billion, partly due to gold imports and the company’s inventory of goods before tariffs.
But concerns about consumer spending are also concerning after the January pullback. Consumer activity accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, thus increasing any further decline.
At the same time, the title is good 151,000 February salary gains This has brought some potential points of failure to the economy.
While the widely mentioned unemployment rate has just nudged up to 4.1%, the so-called real interest rate measures discouraged workers and part-time workers but would rather let full-time jobs soar to 8%, half of half of half of the half-point increase to the highest level since October 2021.
Due to economic reasons, the labor work of those who work part-time jobs has increased by 460,000, up 10% since May 2021. Most of the moves in this category come from those who cite sparse work or business status. Additionally, those full-time reports fell in the 1.2 million levels, while part-timers soared by 610,000.
Jim Paulsen, a former economist and strategist at Wells Fargo and others, noted An alternative position The labor market is approaching a “stall speed” and the benefits of real unemployment are consistent with the recession, although that is not necessarily his prediction.
The growth, he wrote, “emphasizes the growing pressure on the U.S. job market. In addition, it is another indicator that will fear the recession among investors and increase concerns about a potential bear market.”
Few economists on Wall Street expect a recession. Goldman Sachs, for example, lowered its GDP outlook in 2025 to 1.7%, a half-point drop from previous forecasts, while reducing the probability of a 12-month recession to 20%, from 15% by 20%.
Trump administration officials insist that current soft patches, including tariff uncertainty, are part of a broader strategy.
“What we’re doing is, we’re building a huge foundation,” Trump said on the Fox Show.
