U.S. President Donald Trump attended the White House crypto summit in Washington, DC, USA on March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hawkstan | Reuters
Global market volatility and geopolitical turmoil have been around since President Donald Trump returns to the White House Causes warning that the U.S. economy may move forward – But economists say it hasn’t yet gone backwards in the card.
“I don’t think we’re going to talk about the recession in the United States,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
Schmiding said Trump called Trump “a proxy for chaos and chaos” and that the president “says about the twists and turns of tariffs that he knows nothing about the potential consequences of the tariff policy.”
Still, “American consumers have money to spend, and they may.
“But, in the long run, Trump has been increasingly clear for a long time that this will hurt the growth of the U.S. trend, i.e., in the years before 2026. He represents the rising prices of American consumers, which means, in my opinion, there is no reason for the Fed to lower Trump’s rates as president, and Trump sows chaos and chaos,” he noted.
CNBC has contacted the White House for a reply and is awaiting a reply.
International stocks have been rocked their base in recent weeks after fears Trump intends to put serious import tariffs on goods in China, Mexico and Canada.
With chaos and uncertainty, the president announced a probation last Friday And delayed to April 2 some tariffs on U.S. neighbors and closest trading partners.
Trump’s unconventional attitude towards trade and international diplomacy makes the market unimpressed Strategists warn that negative market sentiment will continue in the Trump 2.0 era. U.S. stock futures fell Monday morning, indicating a tough journey for the U.S. market as the new trading week begins.
Business leaders and economists have expressed concerns that tariffs will lead to inflationary pressure on the United States, and consumers may first price higher on imported goods.
They also warn that investment, employment and growth may suffer as consumers tighten their belts, investment, employment and growth may suffer losses Potential “stagnation” is characterized by high inflation and high unemployment.
This will put pressure on the Fed to shelve sustained interest rates, Instead of reducing the range of 4.25%-4.5% from the current benchmark rateto stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates can fuel more spending, which in turn brings inflation to inflation.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that central banks can wait for how Trump’s aggressive policy actions can work before interest rates appear.
“Transitional Period”
Recent economic data displayed Consumer confidence has taken a hit In February, it will provide reflections for the Trump administration. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank gdpnow The tracker for incoming metrics also pointed out last week that the U.S. GDP could shrink by 2.4% between January and March. A technical recession is defined as a occurrence when at least two consecutive quarters of log-negative growth.
Last week’s employment data also suggest that signs of weakness may also begin to spread, although the U.S. labor market is still expanding. NonfarmPayrolls data shows that job growth is weaker than expected in February, and although job growth remains stable, the data began as Trump’s efforts to cut federal labor.
The Labor Department Bureau of Statistics reported Friday that non-agricultural wages rose by 151,000 seasonally adjusted 151,000 people in the month, surpassing 125,000 in January, but Dow Jones’s 170,000 consensus forecasts were below 170,000 consensus forecasts, the Labor Department Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday. The unemployment rate is above 4.1%.
Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said the latest work data “tell us that the economy continues to grow” and did not mean “increase the risk of recession caused by Trump’s policies.”
But, he said in a report on Friday: “Trump’s actions combined are still biased towards the economy in any way, including large-scale capital expenditures.”
“Remember, it’s well known that the presidents have accepted the decline in the first year of their presidency. It’s a free pass, and they accuse the incoming presidents and are praised for their recovery. My basic case is still growth, and the basic focus of the Fed is still there. My basic concern comes from the capital markets, breaking trade, and you’re going to destroy capital inflows to support the economic inflows,” Blitz said.
U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Florida, Washington, DC, USA on March 7, 2025, to Florida, to Florida, to board the Marine Corps.
Evelyn Hawkstan | Reuters
Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession this year, but insisted this weekend that the economy is in a “transitional period.”
Asked about Atlanta Fed warning of economic contraction Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”“Trump seems to acknowledge that his tariff plan may impact our growth.
“I hate to predict things like this,” he said. In an interview aired on SundayWhen asked if the recession was a problem.
“There was a transition period because we were doing a lot. We brought wealth back to the United States. It was a big deal,” the White House leader added: “It took a little time. It took a little time.”
JPMorgan Chase’s U.S. market intelligence department last week pointed out that the U.S. economy is “another uncertainty” given the unpredictable nature of tariffs. Analysts say they are taking “bearish” positions on U.S. stocks, Expect the market to see more volatility and make our growth potentially “craters”.
“We have seen the negative impact of policy/trade uncertainty on household and corporate spending, so we seem to see a bigger magnitude next month. Keep an eye on unemployment rates, layoffs, warning notices, etc.
While the U.S. recession is not a fundamental case for the bank, JPMorgan analysts warned: “The undetermined tariff length and the potential of the trade war have the potential to see new tariff acceleration (the means) we think stocks will be challenged as we cut GDP growth estimates.”
“Given the potential outcome of this escalation, the expectation is that both Canada and Mexico are trapped in the recession. The Yamaguchi expectation and revenue revisions looking for our GDP growth expectations are significantly lower, forcing a rethink of year-end forecasts. With this idea, we changed that idea in our minds.
