Trump’s Tariff Flip-Flops Revive ‘Stagflation’ Fears | Global News Avenue

President Donald Trump’s repeated delays in tariffs on major trading partners have prompted some economists to see the increasing risks even as the cost of living continues to rise.

trump card Stolen into the financial market This week he Heavy duty is imposed first In Canada, Mexico and China, all of these tariffs were then put to the top Effective until April 2. Some economists believe that the possibility of a rapid recession combined with high inflation is growing, if Trump completely knocks out the tariff hammer. at the same time, Uncertainty in future trade policies Have its own resistance to the economy.

Tariffs are OK Reduce economic growth Raise cost of living when the economy has shown some signs of fatigue. Some experts believe that the growing risk of economic growth stagnation, coupled with high inflation, is called “Stagnant. “Scattered is a two-punch as the price rises at the same time and the salary increase is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve.

Wells Fargo Securities economists Brendan McKenna and Azhar Iqbal said if Trump passes the proposed tariffs without cancelling or rewatering, there is a risk of entering recession in the second quarter of 2025, while targeted countries match products of the same size. Projection by economist Consumer Price Index It will increase by 0.7 percentage points faster during the year.

“Defensive inflation could put the economy dangerously close to stagnation due to slow growth,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said in a comment.

The moment of instability in tariff dramas for the economy has begun Some warning signs flash About the possible recession. Consumer confidence and expenditure All have declined in recent weeks, and early forecasts of GDP suggest that economic output in the first quarter is expected to shrink in the first quarter since 2021.

“We are officially in recession amid signs that consumer weaknesses and tariffs have just come into effect,” Ryan Swift, U.S. bond strategist at BCA Research, wrote in a comment. “The February retail report will be a particularly important signal for the health of U.S. consumers. Stay tuned.”