People pass digital billboards in the Moynihan train hall to showcase a new plan by New York Governor Kathy Hochul called “New York Want You,” which aims to recruit and hire displaced federal workers in New York, New York, United States, United States, March 3, 2025.
David Delgado | Reuters
Recently, mixed signals from the labor market have caused anxiety because investors are already in the edge on the potential threat of tariffs to inflation and economic growth.
According to the viewpoint, employers either cut workers at the highest rate or skate with current staffing level.
Several recent surveys show that while job seekers report, workers are increasingly uncertain about their employment status and are less likely to seek other opportunities, while job seekers report more difficult to find new positions.
this Emotional indicators Otherwise solid figures that will appear at more traditional data points, such as non-agricultural wage growth and unemployment rates, which are historically related to full employment and a prosperous labor market.
Reasonable fundamentals
“Basically, in the U.S., the situation is still relatively appropriate in the U.S.,” said the chief economist in PGIM fixed income. “You can just whistle and then hang your hat on the salary report, or recognize that the salary report is a lagging indicator, while some other indicators can give you a better understanding of the flavor of what’s going on under the surface, by comparison.”
When the Ministry of Labor statistics released its February non-agricultural wage report at 8:30 on Friday, the market will get another snapshot of the health of the labor market. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect 170,000 jobs to grow January 143,000the unemployment rate remained stable at 4%.
Although this represents a stable labor market, there are many warnings that will be difficult times ahead.
Spending company challenger, Gray and Christmas reported Thursday Layout announcement From February to its highest monthly level since July 2020. The important reason for this move is Elon Musk’s government’s efficiency ministry’s efforts to snap up federal labor. Challenger reported over 62,000 Doge-related cuts.
Doge’s actions, along with other labor survey indicators, suggests that worker anxiety may not be reflected in Friday’s job figures, mainly due to the timing and approach of the methods used by BLS at its home employment and work levels.
Consumer confidence declines
However, a recent conference committee report showed that consumer confidence has dropped significantly, consistent with the surge in respondents, expecting fewer jobs and being difficult to obtain. Similarly, a University of Michigan survey saw slideshows because respondents were concerned about inflation.
In the economic world, this fear will soon become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“If workers feel confident that they will be able to find a new job…that will be reflected in the economy, and that’s the same in terms of willing employers,” it is indeed the employer’s employment. ” “Never give discounts. ”
Economists have been intensifying the potential impact on layoffs in recent days, with some saying that the multiplier impact involving government contractors could reduce the overall labor force to half a million or more.
“They will have some trouble,” Shrivastava said. “It also does shake people’s confidence and emotions, which will certainly affect the actual economy.”
Goldman Sachs currently says layoffs may only reduce title salary by around 10,000, and the impact is minimal with weather-related. Overall, the bank said the current situation is “a firm pace of job creation that we expect to continue, despite continuing to make catching up recruitment and recent immigrant contributions,” the bank said.
In addition to the number of jobs, BLS will also release figures about wage growth. Average hourly income is expected to show a monthly gain of 0.3%, up 4.2% from the same period last year, about 0.1 percentage point above January levels.
