Bitcoin Bull Market Could Extend To 2026—Here’s Why
Raoul Pal, a well-known macro analyst and founder of Real Vision, has released a forecast that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market could extend into 2026, which exceeds most traditional expectations for peaks in 2025. In a recent speech, PAL said on a series of macroeconomic indicators, a series of macroeconomic indicators, historical price and liquidity indicators, he said he said he had drawn a stable picture and painted a digital painting on the digital.
Bitcoin bull market depends on M2
In the heart of friends paper It is the concept of global M2 money supply, an indicator that tracks the total liquidity of global circulation. PAL observes that Bitcoin and other risky assets are often closely related to changes Global M2. “If that’s the case, then M2 will keep going up for a year. If so, then encryption and risky assets like Tech will do well all year round.”
By comparing current liquidity trends with liquidity trends in 2017 – U.S. President Donald’s stock market soared when the dollar weakened significantly Trump’s first term– Pal believes that the macro background seems to be equally expected to be used for expansion. According to him, if major economies continue to relax, it could drive the next phase of explosive crypto growth.
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PAL’s paper revolves around the impact of global liquidity, especially the role of global M2 money supply as a major indicator of Bitcoin and risky assets. He raised the correlation between global M2 growth and cryptocurrency market performance, noting: “If this is the case, then M2 will continue to rise for a year. If so, then crypto and risky assets like Tech will do well all year round.”
His analysis is similar to 2017, when Trump’s fiscal policy and monetary easing led to long-term dollar weaknesses, which exacerbated the cryptocurrency cycle. Now, similar conditions are developing and degradation of rate and stimulation measures are expected.
A key factor in PAL’s expanded bull market paper is the business cycle, which he tracks through the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, ISM read the above economic expansion of over 50 signals, which is related to the surge in Bitcoin’s price. He noted: “With the ISM rising (…), if ISM reaches a normal cycle peak between 56 and 65, Bitcoin will rise (…), which will make our Bitcoin rise.”
PAL suggests that if ISM continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin Prices may exceed $300,000 or higher. However, he avoids making precise predictions, emphasizing probability rather than certainty, but pushing market analysis.
Speaking to the Altcoin market, PAL insisted that Solana (Sol) and Ethereum (ETH) remain key components of its portfolio. Although Solana has recently dropped by more than 53%, he still ignores concerns about the long-term decline: “Solana beats global M2 (…) Solana should also outperform Bitcoin in the remaining cycles and Ethereum, while SUI beats Sui.”
His broader view of AltCoins is based on a risk-based appetite shift as financial situations ease. Historically, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the second half of the cycle when investors seek higher-speed opportunities. Pal criticized the idea that there is no altcoin season in this cycle, saying: “It’s all nonsense.”
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PAL emphasizes that large callbacks are a feature, not a bug in crypto bull markets. He detailed past corrections, noting that seven more than 20% corrections have been made in the current cycle while maintaining a 600% gain from the lows. He warned traders against leverage and panic sales, strengthening his “Don’t *this**” paper: “To make money, to cancel your future, you will have to learn to cope with volatility.”
He compared the current correction with 2017, which was 30-40% before peaking. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) also shows that the market is the second largest market in the cycle, suggesting a possible recovery in the coming months.
Extend cycle to 2026
As many analysts predict, one of PAL’s most compelling assertions is that the current cycle can extend into 2026 rather than peaking in 2025. His reasoning is based on a period of long periods of economic stagnation before growth accelerates. “The business cycle is under 50. Now it starts expanding. This may have expanded the cycle to 2026,” he said.
Although he clarified that this was not a prediction but a working assumption, the impact could be huge. Longer cycles will allow for higher valuations, ongoing influx of investment and a gradual rather than explosive blow-up top.
PAL reiterated that the cryptocurrency market follows a predictable model with a year-long “banana zone” growing index. He noted that the current correction phase is consistent with past cycles and should lead to new gatherings from April to May. “We are now in the first phase of correction (…) and then we go into March, April, May and we start to accelerate to the next phase of the banana zone again.”
However, he warned that investors should expect another major correction before the final market tops, warning against overdriving and late-cycle breeding.
All in all, Parr urges investors to keep their perspective and resist emotional trading. He stressed the importance of long-term vision, proper portfolio building and patience: “You need patience than anything else and need to understand the market (…) our future is on the same thing.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $88,617.
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