What To Expect From Friday’s Jobs Report | Global News Avenue

Forecasters expect that the U.S. job market may continue at a healthy pace in February, with layoffs by federal workers not having enough impact to curb unemployment.

According to an economist survey of economists Dow Jones News and Wall Street Journal. According to median forecasts, the unemployment rate may remain at 4%, not far from the historical lows. Economists say the rise could partly reflect a rebound after bad weather curbs job growth in January.

The consistent report with expectations will show that the job market remains resilient even in large-scale layoffs by federal workers, at least in temporary layoffs. While layoffs and a freeze of President Donald Trump’s administration could impact the economy Destroy government services Such as weather forecasts and air travel safety, so far, unemployment levels have had only a small impact on the broader economy. Goldman Sachs economists estimate layoffs will reduce job growth by 10,000 in February.

Compared with the 171 million civilian labor force, the entire federal labor force outside the military has only 3 million people.

David Seif and other economists at Nomura wrote in a comment: “The Trump administration’s hiring freeze is likely to be an unfavorable headwind.”

Trouble in advance

Friday’s report is the last study of the economy Tariffs to Canada, Mexico and China Trump took action on Tuesday. Economists expect tariffs to delay growth, Stoke inflation and lead to layoffs, which will become apparent in future economic data. S&P Global estimates last month that Trump’s tariffs will increase the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points.

The surge in unemployment will cause people to worry about the health of the job market. Unemployment rose last year, triggering some alarm bells about the potential recession never passed. Economists at the time attributed the leap in unemployment to the arrival of immigrants and other immigrants Job seekers’ labor forcenot any actual job loss. This time it may be different.

“Tariffs will lead to an increase in unemployment,” Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a comment. “Unlike the rise in unemployment last summer, this is driven by new and re-entering labor, which will be tariffs due to tariffs and will be attributed to layoffs and fewer employment. The increased unemployment rate due to layoffs is greater because it causes more damage because it hurts the actual dominance, the consumer economy, and ineffectively, it hurts the growth of labor because of increased labor, not because of labor.