Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Signals Untapped Potential—What’s Next?
Bitcoin’s price performance has maintained a slow movement in recent weeks, with cryptocurrencies now hovering in the $97,000 range. Despite a 3% decline in the past two weeks, Bitcoin is still in the consolidation phase after its all-time high above $109,000 in January.
As assets hover within this range, discussions surrounding the ongoing halving cycle and its potential impact on them Future price changes have Get motivation. A noteworthy point comes from crypto analyst Oinonen, who recently shared his insights into Bitcoin’s current halving cycle relative to the past.
Institutional activities and market signals
detailed analyze Oinonen, titled “Comparison of Performance After Preparation,” noted that since the latest halving in April 2024, the price of Bitcoin has risen by only 63%. This is in stark contrast to the 686% increase in the halving cycle from 2020 to 2021.
While power law models and the principle of reducing returns suggest more Soft benefits As time goes by, relatively small appreciation since the last halving suggests that the current cycle may still be in progress, leaving room for further upside.
Oinonen also highlights the role of institutional players in shaping the price outlook for Bitcoin. It is worth noting that strategy (formerly micro circulation) remains an influential market player. In early 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, with its total reaching about 478,740 units.
According to Oinonen, the strategy’s continuous acquisition strategy is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases were kind, suggesting that continued accumulation may mark a positive trajectory of Bitcoin’s price. Instead, slow down Institutional purchase It may reflect weak market sentiment.
Long-term prospects in unfinished halving cycles
Looking ahead, Oinonen expects a mixed market environment. Short-term challenges, such as potential “May Sales” effects and stagnant summers, may have achieved stronger performance in the fourth quarter.
Analysts revealed that this seasonal pattern has been repeatedly working over the past few years and usually raises price levels before the end of the year. But, more possibilities Apparent correction– Patch together on the table for months or even a year, especially if macroeconomic events (such as geopolitical resolutions), transform market dynamics.
Overall, the current halving cycle appears to be incomplete through Oinonen’s analysis. Since April 2024, moderate earnings reflect a market that has not yet fully utilized issuance rates.
Therefore, the idea that Bitcoin’s bull running may still have legs is the basis for the existence of historical trends and institutional players such as strategy. The interaction between reduced supply and ongoing demand lays the foundation for a potential upward movement, even if recent volatility remains.
Feature images created with DALL-E, TradingView’s chart
