History Could Repeat With A 2017-Style Surge
In the video Title Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investors (GMI) 2017 vs. 2021, How to do it if the Institute for Bitcoin and Supply Management (ISM) Index and Global Liquidity are established Prepare for noticeable upward space.
Pre-play: Bitcoin Macro Summer is Coming
Bittel explained that the macro “summer” was his main regime to be launched in 2025, meaning growth momentum is increasing, while inflation is still modest enough to avoid excessive. He stressed: “The business cycle continues, pointing to improvements in global manufacturing data, and noting that more and more countries are developing into the expansion field. Although there are still slight fluctuations in some indicators, including briefly similar to Slowing pockets, but Bittel is still confident that these pockets will not mark the onset of a new macro “fall” and continue to slow growth and rise in inflation. Instead, these headwinds are taking into account the overall environment where global financial situation is relaxing. Will prove to be short-lived.
Related Readings
He stressed the decline U.S. bond yields The recent weakening of the dollar is a factor that will bring central banks to “more cowbells”. China’s bond yields collapsed, and Bitel sees it as the main signal that Beijing can provide additional liquidity injections without worrying about overheating. He described the combination as an echo of 2017, which was one year after year, when lower dollar and lower interest rates boosted both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.
Bittel turned to inflation, elaborating on why shelters and other services-related costs are so important. He observed that more than one-third of the title CPIs are associated with housing, “usually lagging home prices around 17 months”, noting that housing inflation is still making official CPI numbers rise. He hopes that this dynamic will give central banks room for further mitigation of monetary policy once they see data rejection. While some cyclical forces, such as commodity prices, may push inflation higher later this year, Bitel stressed that the peak is not coming and that the Fed may retain enough flexibility to avoid stifling it. The economic rebound was underway.
Related Readings
In discussing Bitcoin, Bittel describes the role of the business cycle in driving price movements. He recalled that when the ISM index barely hovered above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrencies gathered through dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro picture once the ISM suddenly appears and liquidity peaks, shortening the cycle and limiting Bitcoin’s operation at about 8 times, moving about 8 times from the initial pivot in the recession. Today’s background looks essentially different. Bittel noted that “ISM has just moved to over 50”, which is in stark contrast to the surge in late 2020 in late 2021, which almost went from the 1940s to the mid-1960s.
He added: “If we are right in collecting weaker dollars and global liquidity,” Bitcoin’s path may be more similar to the slender one. Rises in 2017 Compared with the compression momentum in 2021. Although Bitel did not provide Bitcoin with an accurate price target, once the cycle gained traction, he mentioned the historical precedent of 23x jumps in 2017. His caution is clear – he repeatedly said that these moves will never be guaranteed, “I’m not telling you that Bitcoin is 23 times more”, but he also emphasized that in every previous cryptocurrency run, the endurance of the business cycle The power proved to be a “magical gift that is constantly donated.” He believes the foundation has been set for an expanded rise, but reminds everyone that a 20% to 30% shrinkage is inevitable even during powerful gatherings. .
He further pointed out, “Once you understand where the economy is going, you know where the assets are going,” and reiterated that Liquidity, especially from ChinaAs 2025 progresses, it may become a bigger driver of digital assets. Bittel strengthened this, saying: “Historically, the biggest surfing in Bitcoin happened when ISM rose and we were in a macro summer.”
He also stressed that any short-term pullback in Bitcoin should not be mistaken for changes in the macro regime. Although he reminds viewers to expect correction and be patient, the cyclical conditions driven by easier financial conditions remain. In his words, “this is by no means a straight line” and it will feel like “the end of the world” in a few weeks. However, given the similarities to 2017 and the ongoing slideshow, he believes that the runway for Bitcoin and other risky assets seems to be relatively long.
Although Bittel’s speech also addressed a wider range of market segments such as commodities and cyclical stocks, Bitcoin has received a special focus. Bittel emphasized that “decline is for buying” when explaining why GMI’s macro framework is still optimistic, but only if investors are paying close attention to any deeper signs of structural slowdown. He stressed: “No one will forget that if you register for Bitcoin, you are registering for volatility”, but as the business cycle just starts to start its upward and liquidity conditions, you may have enough room for Bitcoin to move if The data continues to facilitate periodic expansion, surpassing the previous peak.
At press time, BTC was trading at $97,710.
Featured Images created with dall.e, Charts for TradingView.com
