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Why The U.S. Is About To Gain 2.3 Million Workers (On Paper)

Key Points

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics is integrating annual revisions into its employment report, which could change job market statistics, including unemployment and labor force participation.
  • It is estimated that the labor force will increase by about 2.3 million people.
  • The bureau will also finalize revisions to job growth between March 2023 and March 2024, minus 818,000 jobs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is about to revise its estimate of the number of U.S. staff, and this statistical correction could add millions of people that have not been considered before.

On Friday, the bureau will release its broadly anticipated report on the number of jobs acquired or lost in the economy, which is expected to show Stable employment speed. In addition, the bureau will release figures on its monthly workforce size and unemployed people.

The first set of data is based on a survey of employers and the second set of surveys of households. The latter should be majorly revised, which may show that more people working in the United States than they had previously thought.

The bureau is changing its methodology to incorporate new data from the latest census, which has been revised to illustrate The influx of immigrants. Forecasters for the new figures calculated by Goldman Sachs will show an additional 2.3 million people working in the country, with a total population increasing by 3.5 million. That might drive unemployment and Labor force participation rate Slightly up.

As a side effect, comparing these metrics will become more difficult over time, as the bureau will not include revisions in its historical data.

The controversial revision will be finalized

In addition to this revision, the Bureau has finalized revisions to historical work creation data from employer surveys. The preliminary version of the revised version, displayed last August, has caused controversy Added 818,000 jobs A year earlier than I thought.

Economists say that while some numbers may change, the overall story of the job market may not change. Overall, despite the Fed imposing high interest rates to control inflation, the job market has slowed down but has not collapsed since its post-popular Heydey.

“Annual updates to institutional and household surveys will be screened on February 7, but in the end, we don’t want them to dramatically change the latest situation in the labor market,” Wells Fargo Securities economists wrote in a comment.

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