No More Bitcoin Bear Markets? Fund CIO Explores New Reality
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan questioned whether the four -year market cycle of Bitcoin had a long history in a new investor bill ended. His reasoning originated from the transformation of the earthquake of US policy to cryptocurrencies. This is a recent administrative order of President Trump aimed at consolidating the country’s leadership in digital assets.
Can 2026 the trend of Bitcoin Bear?
Hogen notes The first is the so -called “Four -year cycle,“After Bitcoin usually saw a significant increase in three years, it was then recovered. He explained that this cycle reflects the wider prosperity model in the traditional market:” The four -year cycle of cryptocurrencies is the power driven by the same force. These forces have promoted a wider growth and recession cycle in the entire economy, “he wrote.
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These expansions are driven by the interests of investors with technological breakthroughs or increased, and they usually lead to excessive temptation, which occasionally causes the pressure of fraud or the entire industry. In the end, some things were “ruptured” and triggered market correction, such as 2014 Goves Mountain collapse Or 2018 SEC suppress ico.
Hougan (Hougan Failure such as FTXThree arrow capital, etc. According to him, the latest Bulls stage took off in March 2023, when GrayScale “won the opening debate in the legal challenge of the SEC.
“Bitcoin’s transaction price is $ 22,218. Today’s transaction price is $ 102,674. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once in January 2024, investors’ approval of the Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched, which further consolidated Bitcoin’s retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail and retail, Bitcoin and Retail and Retail and Retails and Retails and Retails Approval among institutional participants.
The most striking part of the Hougan analysis was his inspection of the administrative order last week issued by President Trump. The command not only believes that the development of the US digital asset ecosystem is a “national priority”, but also provides a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
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Hogan wrote: “Last week, President Trump issued an administrative order. This is the case for this space, which makes me strange.” Encrypted reserve“And encourage banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets.
Combined with the more enthusiastic position of the SEC, Hougan believes that these measures may release new trillion dollars new investment in the next few years, which far exceeds the US $ 100 billion in the ETF -driven market.
Hougan’s analysis acknowledged that Bitcoin has always followed its final retreat model. However, as Wall Street’s behemoths and major banks are preparing to integrate cryptocurrencies at all levels, the market is increasingly likely to not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If we only feel these influences until next year, we will really have one The new “encrypted winter” in 2026 “” His assumption. “if Blackstone CEO Larry Fink requires Bitcoin $ 700,000. Do we really see 70 % of the callback? “
Although he acknowledged that the leverage rate continued to be established in the system, which caused Bitcoin to support loan plans, the rise in derivatives and leverage exchange products, he also highlighted more and more encrypted investors. He believes that this diversity may inhibit severe shrinkage. “My guess is that we have not fully overcome the four -year cycle yet. With the construction of the bull market, the leverage will be established. The excess will appear. The bad actor will appear. At some point, when the market has passed the ski board, there may be a sharp decline in a sharp decline in the market. “” “
However, Hougan predicts that, compared with the previous cycle, any future market correction will be “shorter and shallow.” As the infrastructure of the industry is now stronger, mainstream participants regard cryptocurrencies as legal asset categories, similar to the dramatic bear markets in 2014 or 2018 may be less. He concluded: “As far as is concerned, it is full of motivation.” “The encrypted train is leaving the station.”
At the time of release, the transaction price of BTC was $ 105,275.
Use the characteristic images created by Dall.e, the chart of tradingView.com
