Could Racheal Reeves’ new reforms boost growth? | Global News Avenue

Prime Minister Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday that “economic growth is the number one task of the government” because she announced a series of suggestions for improving the British economy.

But can the government grow rapidly from her plan?

Critics believe that some projects (such as expanding Henzro Airport) are not helpful in the short term.

The BBC verification checks some key figures and claims.

Recent official data shows that between July 2024 and November 2024, GDP has rarely increased-the overall scale of the British economy has not increased.

And the latest mid -term Official growth forecast for budget responsibility officeGovernment’s official forecasters increased by 1.6 % in GDP in 2029, which will far below the financial crisis before 2008 Average increase of 2.8 % One year.

However, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the growth rate of Britain in 2025 and 2026 will be higher than France and Germany.

The low growth rate of GDP will be transformed into our wages and income and general living standards.

The Prime Minister said that the third runway of Henhero Airport was allowed to “create 100,000 employment opportunities” to raise investment and exports, and “unlock future growth.”

She quoted a new report from the consulting company Frontier economics and found that it might increase Britain’s potential GDP in 2050 Multiplying at 0.43 %, about 17 billion poundsEssence

This and The survey results of the Independent Committee 霍华德·戴维斯爵士（Sir Howard Davies）在2015年得出结论，在希思罗机场（Heathrow）的第三条跑道将支持英国贸易，并提高生产率，并提高GDP的0.65-0.75％，到Compared with other situations in 2050.

However, most analysts believe that even if new reforms have been carried out to accelerate the planning process, shovel may take many years to start building new runways.

The government will have a difficult balanced behavior Expand both the Sisro institution and achieve its climatic goalsEssence

The BBC (BBC) verification requires that the Treasury provides a source of 100,000 employment characters, and pointed out that the 2017 report of the Ministry of Transport estimates that the new runway at Henhero Airport may increase from 57,000 to 114,000 local jobs. Although the report added: “These tasks are not extra at the national level, because some tasks may have been displaced from other airports or other departments.”

In her speech, the Prime Minister claimed that the Oxford and Cambridge Growth Corridor “By 2035, the British economy may increase a total of 7.8 billion pounds.”

This corridor is the resurrection of the plan to join Oxford and Cambridge in the previous government, and allows these two universities and research centers to expand.

In order to support the Prime Minister’s figure, the Ministry of Finance quoted a study called “Oxford-Carmbridge Super Collection” industry group.

This study shows that the 78 billion pounds are “cumulative characters” in 10 years, rather than the improvement of a given year.

Analysis shows that the project may increase the total value -added (GVA) of 25 billion pounds per year in 2035.

By that date, this will constitute a permanent growth of British GDP.

The estimation of infrastructure projects on growth is essentially uncertain, and it is very sensitive to researchers, that is, what will happen if it has never established growth.

However, most economists do think that infrastructure projects, especially those that allow places that are allowed to expand in productivity, will eventually help Britain’s economic development speed faster than other ways.

Ben Caswell, a senior economist at the National Institute of Economics and Socials (NIESR), said: “Large infrastructure projects usually grow in the long run, about 10 to 20 years.”

“When the shovel is on the ground, there may be a small demand side improvement in the short term, but it does not make much sense, so that you will see it in the title GDP growth figure.

“However, after the project is completed, the economic supply capacity will be permanently enhanced, and all other things will provide a higher continuous GDP growth than the previous higher GDP growth.”

The Prime Minister said that another reform of growth is to enable British companies to obtain funds from its “determined welfare pension” pot, which represents its labor force to provide funds for retirement.

The determined welfare pension plans to ensure the annual pension payment of retired workers based on their salary at work.

Due to the rise in interest rates since the popularity, these determined welfare pension gold pots have fallen into surplus in recent years, which means that their financial assets (their investment) are greater than their financial liabilities (they must pay the pension receipt To.

The Ministry of Finance stated that about 75 % of plans are now surplus, with total surplus in total as much as 160 billion pounds.

The Prime Minister hopes to legislate to allow the company to use these funds to invest, while ensuring and guaranteeing workers’ pension expenditures.

The surplus of measurement and definition of welfare scheme depends on various complex assumptions about the plan and its relationship with the employer.

The official pension regulatory agency estimates that in one measurement standard, the scale of £ 20.7 billion in September 2024 was 137 billion pounds with different measurement standards.

The Ministry of Finance is estimated to be between the two.

If such a payment is deployed, theoretically, this may have a positive impact on the overall investment of British investment, which is regarded by economists as a long -term and GDP growth for a long -term driving force.

According to official data, the total commercial investment in 2023 was 25.8 billion pounds.

However, the scale of any improvement of this pension reform will depend on the company’s willingness to invest, which is uncertain, because many companies have been seeking to uninstall the welfare pension plan that it has determined in recent years to insurance companies.