Existing Home Sales Hit a Multidecade Low. Why Are Economists Upbeat About the Housing Market?
Key points
- According to data from the National Real Estate Broker Association, the housing market has gained momentum in December. However, since 1995, existing housing sales of the year have been at the lowest level.
- Improvement at the end of the year shows that some economists believe that it can last a positive trend until 2025.
- The optimistic prospect is that as the interest rate of mortgage continues to continue to trend 7 %, it indicates that buyers may begin to receive higher lending costs.
The momentum of the housing market may grow in December, but because the high prices and high prices scare buyers, the existing house sales have ended this year.
According to data released by the National Real Estate Broker Association on Friday, the existing house sales last year totaled 4.06 million. It was the lowest total since 1995. One factor of sales pressure is the median number House priceNar said that in 2024, it reached a record $ 407,500.
According to the calculation of Freddie Mac, it has been fixed for 30 years Mortgage rate It still maintains a range of more than 6.5 % throughout the year, making the burden on the market more complicated.
Charlie Dougherty, a Wells Fargo economist, Jackie Benson and Ali Hajibeigi wrote: “Our expected sales last year marked the sales of existing houses for sales last year. And it is expected that the recent momentum will be extended to 2025.
These three economists are more optimistic about the local market in the new year, because both buyers and sellers have a benefit Stable labor market and Salary In recent months. Economists say that although they are worried about higher interest rates, this may return them to the market. At the same time, NAR data shows that the number of houses in the market in December increased by more than 16 % over the same period last year.
BMO senior economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy wrote: “This may indicate that buyers and sellers may reach requirements at a higher interest rate environment, because 30 years of fixed mortgage loan interest rates have been back up about 7 %.”