What’s Behind Surging Business Optimism? Likely Some of Trump’s Proposals | Global News Avenue

While consumers have expressed a range of feelings about the economic outlook, there is one group of people who are feeling renewed optimism about the direction of the economy: business leaders.

In multiple surveys since last year Donald Trump November electionthere’s been a noteworthy shift in sentiment among business owners and executives. The reversal was perhaps most evident when the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index surged in December to its highest level since October 2018.

The November survey results, the first since the election, show the number of small business owners who are optimistic about the economic outlook economy Up 41 points.

“Optimism on Main Street continues to grow as the economic outlook improves following the election,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg wrote in the report. “Optimism on Main Street continues to grow amid expectations of business-friendly policies and legislation in the new year. Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation and positive business conditions have increased.”

Analysts say much of this optimism is directly related to Trump’s campaign promises.

“Small business owners expect lower regulatory costs and greater transparency in policy direction, particularly around energy policy and tax treatment,” wrote Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood.

Other surveys show business owners in high spirits

This isn’t the only survey showing growing optimism among businesses.

In JPMorgan Chase’s annual survey of business leaders, 65% expressed optimism about the national economy, more than double last year’s number. Only 14% of respondents expect a recession in 2025, down sharply from the 40% who expected a recession last year.

Additionally, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey showed that 72% of small business owners said they expect revenue to grow in 2025.

“Concerns about a recession have eased as businesses, consumers and markets have weathered a period of rising inflation and interest rates better than expected,” Ginger Chambless, head of commercial banking research at J.P. Morgan, said in a prepared statement. Confidence in landing scenarios has increased and business leaders are facing the future with a positive attitude.

Businesses need to boost consumer confidence

Business leaders contrasted with consumers, who expressed a more cautious view of the economic outlook.

For example, Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Survey shows Consumer expectations for January This is nearly seven percentage points lower than the same period last year. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose after the November election but fell in December.

While optimism among small businesses provides encouraging signs, Helfert wrote that consumers also need to remain optimistic about the economy for businesses to grow this year.

“Going forward, the sustainability of this optimistic trend may depend on whether consumer sentiment, especially among lower-wage groups, follows suit,” Helfert said.