Geopolitical Concerns Have Oil Prices Back at October Levels
Main points
- Oil prices rose on Friday morning, with global benchmark futures recently hitting their highest levels since the fall.
- Part of the reason: a report that the U.S. may tighten sanctions on Russia, which could stoke demand concerns. Analysts say geopolitical issues could cause oil prices to swing in either direction this year, as could broader economic issues.
- The S&P 500’s energy sector was the best performing sector in early trading.
Oil prices rose on Friday morning, hitting their highest levels since the fall, as traders priced in the possibility of further U.S. sanctions on Russia.
Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, recently traded around $80, up about 4%, according to multiple market data sources. This is the contract’s highest price since October. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s energy sector was the biggest gainer on the day among the 11 indexes, rising about 0.4%,
Reuters An article on Friday cited a report that the United States “will impose its toughest sanctions yet on the Russian oil industry, sanctioning 180 vessels, dozens of traders, two major oil companies and a number of Russian oil executives .This may have triggered supply concerns, pushing prices higher.
Traders may also be reacting to cold weather in parts of the United States, which could increase demand for heating oil.
Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Thursday that geopolitical issues including sanctions and tariffs are expected to be a key (albeit unpredictable) driver of oil price movements in 2025, even as they forecast steady demand growth over the next decade, including from emerging markets needs.
Analysts at UBS wrote on Wednesday that a possible reduction in supply from Iran could push up prices this year, while a slowdown in the global economy could pull prices down.