Who are Syrian rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS?
Getty ImagesRebels have entered the Syrian capital Damascus and there are reports that President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country by plane to an unknown location.
The group said in a television broadcast that the city had been “liberated and tyrant Bashar al-Assad had been overthrown.”
“Long live a free and independent Syria for all Syrians of all denominations,” they added.
A lightning offensive led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani began with the sudden capture of Aleppo in late November. It appeared to end the regime in less than two weeks.
In many cases, Syrian troops reportedly either left their posts or defected to the opposition.
The initial attack was led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has a long and complicated history in the Syrian conflict.
HTS is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, Türkiye and other countries.
Who is Tahrir al-Sham?
ReutersHTS was founded under a different name; victorious frontIn 2011, it became a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda.
The self-proclaimed leader of the Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadialso participated in its formation.
It is considered one of the most effective and lethal groups targeting President Assad.
But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary fervor, and it was seen at the time as being at odds with the main rebel alliance under the Free Syria banner.
In 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, publicly broke with Al Qaeda. Disband Al-Nusra Front and form new organizationA year later, the group merged with several other similar groups and changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Over time, HTS has established its power base in the northwestern province of Idlib, where it is the de facto local administration, although its efforts at legitimacy have been undermined by alleged human rights abuses.
It has also been involved in some bitter infighting with other groups.
Its ambitions outside Idlib have become unclear.
Since breaking with al-Qaeda, its goals have been limited to trying to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria, rather than establishing a broader caliphate, as the Islamic State has sought to do.
So far it has shown few signs of trying to reignite Syria’s conflict on a large scale and re-challenge Assad’s rule over much of the country.
Why did the war break out in Syria?
In March 2011, pro-democracy demonstrations broke out in the southern city of Daraa, inspired by uprisings against authoritarian rulers in neighboring countries.
As the Syrian government uses lethal force to suppress dissent, protests calling for the president’s resignation erupt across the country.
Riots spread and repression intensified. Opposition supporters took up arms, first in self-defense and later to clear their areas of security forces. Assad has vowed to crush what he calls “foreign-backed terrorism.”
Hundreds of insurgent groups have emerged, foreign powers have begun to choose sides, and extremist jihadist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda have also become involved.
Violence quickly escalated and the country descended into an all-out civil war involving regional and world powers.
More than 500,000 people were killed and 12 million were forced to flee their homes, about 5 million of whom were overseas refugees or asylum seekers.
How was the rebel offensive launched?
For the past four years, it has felt as though the war in Syria was actually over.
President Bashar al-Assad’s rule remains largely unchallenged in the country’s major cities, while some other parts of Syria remain outside his direct control.
These include Kurdish-majority areas in the east, which have been more or less outside the control of the Syrian state since the early days of the conflict.
The revolution against Assad’s rule began in the south in 2011, and although it was relatively peaceful, some unrest persisted.
Across the vast Syrian desert, die-hard elements of the group calling itself the Islamic State still pose a security threat, especially during truffle hunting season when people travel to the region in search of the lucrative delicacy.
In the northwest, Idlib province is controlled by militant groups driven there at the height of the war.
HTS is the dominant force in Idlib and a force that launched surprise attacks on Aleppo.
For years, Idlib has been a battleground that Syrian government forces have tried to regain control of.
but 2020 ceasefire brokered by RussiaTürkiye, which has long been Assad’s main ally and backs the rebels, has largely held its ground.
About four million people live there, most of them displaced from towns that Assad’s forces recaptured from rebels in a brutal war of attrition.
Aleppo was one of the bloodiest battlefields and one of the rebels’ biggest defeats.
To achieve victory, President Assad could not rely solely on the country’s ill-equipped and unmotivated conscripts, an army that quickly became dangerously overstretched and often unable to hold its ground against rebel attacks.
Instead, he has come to rely heavily on Russian airpower and Iranian military help on the ground—mainly through Tehran-backed militias.
That includes Hezbollah.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah’s recent setbacks Israel’s attack on Lebanonand Israeli attacks on Iranian military commanders in Syria played an important role in the decision by jihadists and rebel groups in Idlib to launch a sudden and unexpected move against Aleppo.
Over the past few months, Israel has stepped up attacks on Iran-linked groups and their supply lines, wreaking havoc on the networks through which these militias, including Hezbollah, operate in Syria.
Without them, President Assad’s forces will be exposed.
