Fall of Assad is a blow to Russia’s prestige
It is Russian firepower that has helped Bashar al-Assad stay in power for the past nine years.
But within days, the Kremlin’s plans for Syria had unraveled, and it became clear that there was little Moscow could do about it.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that Assad had resigned from the presidency and from state duties (without providing any details about his whereabouts).
The statement added that Moscow was “extremely concerned by the dramatic events unfolding in Syria.”
The fall of Assad’s regime is a blow to Russia’s prestige.
In 2015, Russia sent thousands of troops to support President Assad, with one of its main goals being to maintain its status as a global power. It is Vladimir Putin’s first major challenge to Western power and dominance away from the former Soviet Union.
It also seems to be a successful attempt. In 2017, President Putin visited Russia’s Khmeimim Air Force Base in Syria and declared that the base’s mission was completed. Despite widespread reports of civilian casualties from Russian airstrikes, the Russian Defense Ministry was confident enough to fly international media to Syria to witness Russian military operations.
On one such trip, I remember an officer telling me that Russia “will be in Syria for the long haul.”
But it’s not just prestige.
In return for military assistance, the Syrian authorities granted Russia a 49-year lease on the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base. Russia gained an important foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. These bases serve as hubs for military contractors entering and exiting Africa.
A key question for Moscow is: What will happen to these Russian bases now?
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that its bases in Syria have been placed on “high alert” but claimed that “there is currently no serious threat to them.”
Assad is Russia’s staunchest ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin has invested heavily in him. It invested financial, military, political and other resources to maintain his power. Russian authorities will strive to portray his fall as a setback for Moscow.
But Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Russian upper house of parliament, wrote on social media: “What is happening in Syria is very difficult for everyone, without exception… It is a tragedy for everyone tragedy.
“For Russians, our top priority is ensuring the safety of our citizens, including civilians, including diplomats and their families, and of course military personnel.”
