How Trump’s Mass Deportation Plans Could Shake Up Home Prices Across the Nation
President-elect Donald Trump aims to deport approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants. Mass evictions could hit construction workers, push prices higher labor and household expenses.
Main points
- Trump claims mass deportations will decrease house pricebut critics say the plan could have the opposite effect.
- Undocumented immigrants make up a large portion of the new home construction workforce. Their expulsion could have negative effects on the labor market.
- Rising labor costs could slow home construction and push up home prices.
Impact on the labor market
Estimates of the number of undocumented immigrant construction workers vary, but the numbers are substantial. The Center for American Progress estimates it at 23%. Depending on the situation in different states, that number could be much higher. More than half of construction workers in Texas may be undocumented.
If these people are successfully deported, there will be a huge gap in the construction workforce.
this housing shortage The situation in the U.S. has been getting worse since the outbreak began Great Recession. The U.S. market is short of millions of housing units. Real estate company Zillow projects the housing shortage will grow to 4.5 million units by 2022. This shortcoming means costs become more unaffordable for homebuyers and renters.
There is currently a shortage of skilled construction workers to meet the demand for more homes. Firing undocumented construction workers will exacerbate this shortage.
Impact on household costs
President-elect Trump claims that undocumented immigrants drive up housing costs, but many economists refute that claim. Experts point out that undocumented immigrants do not account for a large proportion of home buyers. They are more likely to become renters.
Housing shortage, not undocumented immigration, is the main reason for the ongoing housing shortage Affordability question.
If mass evictions fail to reduce competition for homebuyers and cut into an already tight workforce, homebuyers could face the consequences of high demand and higher construction costs.
The impact of deportations on the labor market is not the only policy Trump has proposed that could affect home prices. He has said he plans to impose steep tariffs on imported goods. These tariffs could drive up the price of building materials, causing household costs to rise.
Higher construction labor and material costs could slow development and exacerbate housing shortages. if Supply remains low, demand remains highhouse prices will continue to rise.
bottom line
If mass evictions begin in 2025, the existing housing supply shortage in the United States could quickly worsen due to the loss of skilled construction labor and disruptions in new home starts, which would inevitably put upward pressure on home prices.