Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine’s Kursk gamble falters | Global News Avenue

At a critical moment in the conflict, Russian troops are accelerating on the front lines in Ukraine.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained almost six times more territory in 2024 than in 2023 and is advancing towards the main logistics center in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region faltered. Russian troops have pushed back Kyiv’s offensive. Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a “strategic disaster” given the manpower shortages Ukraine faces.

The developments come amid heightened uncertainty as Donald Trump’s second administration approaches. The US president-elect has vowed to end the war when he takes office in January, and some fear he may cut future military aid to Ukraine.

The front lines moved quickly during the first months of the war, with Russia making rapid advances before being pushed back by Ukrainian counteroffensives. But by 2023, neither side had made any significant progress and the conflict had essentially reached a stalemate.

But new data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the situation in 2024 will be more favorable for Russia. ISW’s analysis is based on confirmed social media footage and troop movement reports.

ISW data shows that so far this year, Moscow’s troops have occupied about 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, compared with just 465 square kilometers in all of 2023, an increase of nearly six times.

Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at King’s College London, told the BBC that Ukraine’s eastern front “could effectively collapse” if Russia continues its rapid advance.

More than 1,000 square kilometers were acquired between September 1 and November 3, indicating that the pace of progress has accelerated in recent months. The two regions that have borne the brunt are Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhov, a stepping stone to the main logistics hub of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.

Kupyansk and the area east of the Oskil River Liberated during the 2022 Kharkov Offensivebut Russia has gradually regained the latter area. The British Ministry of Defense said in a recent intelligence update that Russian troops were trying to break through the city’s northeastern suburbs.

A video released on November 13 and verified by the BBC is consistent with this analysis. Video shows a Russian armored convoy being repelled as it moved within 4 kilometers of a key bridge in Kupyansk, the last major road intersection in the region.

While these reports don’t necessarily imply control of an area, it shows how stretched Ukraine’s defenses have become.

Elsewhere, since retaking the city of Vukhledar in October – an elevated position above a key supply line that Moscow spent two years trying to secure – Russia invests resources in Kulakhov.

Ukrainian garrison forces have so far repelled attacks from the south and east. But the front line was getting closer, and Russia threatened to encircle the defenders to the north and west.

Colonel Yevgeny Sasiko, former head of strategic communications at Ukraine’s General Staff, said Russia placed a “powerful jaw” on the city’s flanks and slowly “crushed” the defenses until they collapsed.

Video from the city verified by the BBC showed widespread destruction and severe damage to residential buildings.

The ISW concluded that Moscow now owns a total of 110,649 square kilometers of land in Ukraine. By comparison, Ukrainian forces captured more than 1,171 square kilometers in the first month of their invasion of Kursk, although Russian forces have now recaptured nearly half of that territory.

Despite the territorial gains, Russia’s progress came at great cost.

Analysis by BBC Russian confirmed that since Russia launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, at least 78,329 soldiers have been killed, with Moscow’s losses from September to November this year being more than one and a half times more than last year. Same period in 2023.

Losses are said to have been exacerbated by the “meat grinder” approach favored by Russian commanders, which describes sending waves of new troops into Ukrainian positions to wear down the force.

Despite Russia’s progress, some experts note that the actual pace of the offensive remains slow. Military analyst David Handelman said Ukrainian forces in the east were slowly withdrawing troops to conserve manpower and resources rather than suffer a wider collapse.

Ukraine launched a surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk region in August. It was unclear why Russia took so long to respond to the operation, which quickly saw Kiev forces take control of some border communities.

Dr Miron said that while there would be domestic political costs for the Kremlin as long as the invasion continued, the Russian General Staff had been keen to tie down Ukrainian forces in Kursk as they made gains elsewhere on the front.

But Moscow now clearly intends to regain lost territory on its own soil. About 50,000 troops have been deployed to the area.

Verified video from the Kursk region shows fighting taking place, with Russia suffering considerable losses in manpower and equipment. But the data clearly show that Ukraine’s control over the region is shrinking.

Since the beginning of October, Russia’s counterattack has regained about 593 square kilometers of territory in the border area, ISW data shows.

The Kursk invasion was initially a boon to Ukraine’s morale at a time of serious setbacks, and the audacity of the operation was a reminder of its ability to surprise its enemies.

But Dr Miron said that while the Kursk invasion was a moment of “tactical brilliance”, it was also a “strategic disaster” for Ukraine.

“The whole idea may be to gain some political leverage in potential negotiations, but militarily it is to remove Russian troops from Donbass to liberate Kursk. Instead, what we see is Ukrainian troops tied up there ”

It is known that some of Kiev’s most experienced and effective troops are fighting in Kursk. Mechanized units equipped with state-of-the-art Western armor also participated in the offensive.

Ukrainian leaders have signaled they hope the incursion will force Moscow to move some of its forces away from eastern Ukraine, slowing Russia’s advance there. Instead, experts say, most of the reinforcements are being moved to Kursk from parts of Ukraine where fighting is less intense.

Yuri Kravelier, a land analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC: “According to Ukrainian soldiers from different areas of the front line, the Russian troops reinforcing Kursk are mainly coming from the Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. withdrawn.”

“The fighting there was not as intense as in the east. Since Ukraine successfully blocked the Russian offensive, some Russian troops attacking Kharkov were also redirected to Kursk.”

The importance of territory to both parties is that it enhances their position in any potential negotiations. Although peace talks were not discussed, US President-elect Trump claimed he could end the war within 24 hours, but did not specify how.

Tuesday, Ukraine Launch U.S.-provided long-range missiles at Russia The first time — the day after Washington allowed it to do so. The decision is thought to have been made in part to help Ukraine retain parts of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

But Dr Miron told the BBC that Russia’s advances put them in a stronger negotiating position as Mr Trump’s new foreign policy team prepares to take office.

“What they control now does give them a certain advantage,” she said. “If there are going to be negotiations, I’m sure as the Russian side has been saying, ‘We will do it based on the battlefield configuration.'”

“From the Russians’ perspective, they have a much better hand than the Ukrainians.”

Additional reporting by Alex Murray.