A trader works on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange on August 4, 2022.
Source: New York Stock Exchange
Stock futures edged higher in early trading Tuesday night as investors braced for a long night ahead of a contentious U.S. presidential race that will have major ramifications for markets and the economy.
Futures on Dow Jones Industrial Average An increase of 59 points. S&P 500 Index Futures up 0.1% Nasdaq 100 Futures edged higher.
Americans vote across the country in tight race between former presidents Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris. The first polling places in parts of Kentucky and Indiana will close at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday. (Follow CNBC’s 2024 election live blog here.)
Trump’s tax-cut agenda could provide a real boost to U.S. businesses, but his presidency’s high tariffs and potential global trade wars could lead to more uncertainty and a resurgence of inflation. The risk of tighter regulation in a Harris administration could bring more scrutiny to industries like banking and health care, while Democratic support for clean energy could boost electric car companies and solar companies.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on whether the partisan composition of both chambers of Congress remains divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep could lead to more dramatic spending changes or a sharp overhaul of tax policy.
Goldman Sachs predict A Trump victory and a Republican sweep of Congress would trigger a 3% gain for the S&P 500. The bank predicts that even a Trump victory and a divided Congress would result in a roughly 1.5% gain for the S&P 500. On the other hand, the bank told its clients that a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause the S&P 500 to fall 1.5%.
“I very much agree with the view that a Trump victory would be very positive for the stock market,” Strategas Chairman Jason Trennert said on CNBC on Tuesday.Power lunch“And I don’t think a Harris win would be particularly positive for risk assets.”
But traders may have to wait until the election results later this week to be certain. Prolonged uncertainty could weigh on markets ahead of the results.
Stocks surged Tuesday ahead of election results The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, That brings the benchmark’s 2024 gain to more than 21%. The blue-chip Dow Jones rose more than 400 points intraday.
After the election, there will be another market-moving event this week with the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Following a half-percentage point cut in September, traders reportedly see a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
